In 2015, Chinese President Xi Jinping endorsed a new initiative, known as the Global Energy Interconnection (GEI), that could help solve humanity's pressing energy and climate dilemmas through the development of a global power grid. The GEI would connect remote renewable sources of energy to global consumption centers using ultra-high-voltage power transmission lines spanning continents and smart technologies. This way, peak demand for electricity in the evening in eastern China, for example, could be met using solar power at noon in central Asia, matching supply and demand across countries and continents more efficiently. On paper, the proposal presents many benefits. However, concerns about China's intentions and the political, security, and economic implications of a China-led GEI also exist. The GEI is reminiscent of China's similar controversial initiatives to connect with the rest of the world in such sectors as telecommunications, port infrastructure, and rail. In this report, RAND researchers set out to advance knowledge on the GEI and to demystify the potential global security implications associated with this important but poorly understood initiative.

Climate change is projected to affect the physical environment of the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility (AOR) significantly throughout the 21st century and could have consequences for security. How climate change might do this, and what these security consequences might be, are important issues for security planners. U.S. competitors and adversaries could have new opportunities to seek advantages relative to the United States. To understand how China, Russia, and Iran might exploit climate-related conflicts, the RAND Corporation hosted a two-day workshop that presented nine scenarios with different climate hazards and levels of conflict to a panel of 11 subject-matter experts. The experts were knowledgeable about the overall global strategy, interests, and capabilities of China, Russia, and Iran and were asked to assess how these countries would react to climate-related conflict. This report provides the results of that workshop. The purpose of this research is to support CENTCOM leadership and planners and their interagency partners to prepare for a future security environment that is affected by climate change. Understanding the frequency of future conflict in the AOR, as well as the evolution of threats under climate change, will enable the U.S. government to better prepare for this future. This report is the fourth in a series focused on climate change and the security environment.