What are the insights from historical pandemics for policymaking today? We carry out a systematic review of the literature on the impact of pandemics that occurred since the Industrial Revolution and prior to Covid-19. Our literature searches were conducted between June 2020 and September 2023, with the final review encompassing 169 research papers selected for their relevance to understanding either the demographic or economic impact of pandemics. We include literature from across disciplines to maximise our knowledge base, finding many relevant articles in journals which would not normally be on the radar of social scientists. Our review identifies two gaps in the literature: (1) the need to study pandemics and their effects more collectively rather than looking at them in isolation; and (2) the need for more study of pandemics besides 1918 Spanish Influenza, especially milder pandemic episodes. These gaps are a consequence of academics working in silos, failing to draw on the skills and knowledge offered by other disciplines. Synthesising existing knowledge on pandemics in one place provides a basis upon which to identify the lessons in preparing for future catastrophic disease events.

Influenza is a major public health problem worldwide. Mutations and resistance development make the use of antiviral therapy challenging. Chinese patent medicines are often used to treat influenza in China and well tolerable. However, the misuse of Chinese patent medicines is common. We therefore aimed to develop an evidence-based guideline on treating influenza with Chinese patent medicines in adults to guide clinical practice. We formed a steering committee, a consensus panel, a consultants' group and an evidence synthesis team to guide the development of the guideline. We formulated the clinical questions through two rounds of survey, and finally selected five questions. We then systematically searched the related evidence and conducted meta -analyses, evidence summaries and GRADE decision tables to draft the recommendations, which the consensus panel then voted on using the Delphi method. Finally, we formulated six recommendations based on the evidence synthesis and experts' consensus. For treating mild influenza, we suggest either Lianhua Qingwen capsule, Jinhua Qinggan granule, Banlangen granule, Shufeng Jiedu capsule, or Jinfang Baidu pill, depending on the manifestations. For severe influenza, or mild influenza in patients at high risk of developing severe influenza, we suggest Lianhua Qingwen capsule in combination with antiviral medications and supportive therapy. The strength of all recommendations was weak. Traditional Chinese medicine has great potential to help in the fight against influenza worldwide, but more high-quality studies are still needed to strengthen the evidence.

Background: Influenza infection is a serious public health problem that causes an estimated 3 to 5 million cases and 250,000 deaths worldwide every year. The epidemiology of influenza is well-documented in high- and middle-income countries, however minimal effort had been made to understand the epidemiology, burden and seasonality of influenza in Africa. This study aims to assess the state of knowledge of seasonal influenza epidemiology in Africa and identify potential data gaps for policy formulation following the 2009 pandemic. Method: We reviewed articles from Africa published into four databases namely: MEDLINE (PubMed), Google Scholar, Cochrane Library and Scientific Research Publishing from 2010 to 2019. Results: We screened titles and abstracts of 2070 studies of which 311 were selected for full content evaluation and 199 studies were considered. Selected articles varied substantially on the basis of the topics they addressed covering the field of influenza surveillance (n=80); influenza risk factors and co-morbidities (n=15); influenza burden (n=37); influenza vaccination (n=40); influenza and other respiratory pathogens (n=22) and influenza diagnosis (n=5). Conclusion: Significant progress has been made since the last pandemic in understanding the influenza epidemiology in Africa. However, efforts still remain for most countries to have sufficient data to allow countries to prioritize strategies for influenza prevention and control.

Background: Bacterial meningitis is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide among children aged 1-59 months. We aimed to describe its burden in South Asia, focusing on vaccine-preventable aetiologies. Methods: We searched five databases for studies published from January 1, 1990, to April 25, 2017. We estimated incidence and aetiology-specific proportions using random-effects meta-analysis. In secondary analyses, we described vaccine impact and pneumococcal meningitis serotypes. Results: We included 48 articles cumulatively reporting 20,707 cases from 1987 to 2013. Mean annual incidence was 105 (95% confidence interval [CI], 53-173) cases per 100,000 children. On average, Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) accounted for 13% (95% CI, 8-19%) of cases, pneumococcus for 10% (95% CI, 6-15%), and meningococcus for 1% (95% CI, 0-2%). These meta-analyses had substantial between-study heterogeneity (I2 > 78%, P < 0.0001). Among studies reporting only confirmed cases, these three bacteria caused a median of 78% cases (IQR, 50-87%). Hib meningitis incidence declined by 72-83% at sentinel hospitals in Pakistan and Bangladesh, respectively, within two years of implementing nationwide vaccination. On average, PCV10 covered 49% (95% CI, 39-58%), PCV13 covered 51% (95% CI, 40-61%), and PPSV23 covered 74% (95% CI, 67-80%) of pneumococcal meningitis serotypes. Lower PCV10 and PCV13 serotype coverage in Bangladesh was associated with higher prevalence of serotype 2, compared to India and Pakistan. Conclusions: South Asia has relatively high incidence of bacterial meningitis among children aged 1-59 months, with vaccine-preventable bacteria causing a substantial proportion. These estimates are likely underestimates due to multiple epidemiological and microbiological factors. Further research on vaccine impact and distribution of pneumococcal serotypes will inform vaccine policymaking and implementation.

Objectives: To conduct a literature review of influenza vaccination policy, describing roles and interactions between stakeholders and the factors influencing policy-making. Methods: Major databases were searched using keywords related to influenza vaccination, decision-making and health policy. Titles and abstracts were screened according to defined criteria using independent reviewers. Selected articles were analysed and compared against a checklist. Results: 342 papers were identified, but only 111 included. A wide range of countries was represented in articles published in 1994-2012. We identified numerous stakeholders at the national and international level and found a variety of interactions between them. Using these data, we suggest a scheme for the most important stakeholders and their interactions. Determinants of policy-making were mainly related to the vaccine/disease, political-economic context, and stakeholders communication. The most relevant evidence was clinical/epidemiological studies. After the 2009 pandemic: the importance of mathematical modelling and ethical issues was greater; and the need for better communication between stakeholders was emphasised. Conclusions: The relevance of evidence and factors influencing policy-making varied between countries, according to complex interactions between the stakeholders involved at different levels of decision-making process. These interactions remain unclear, especially at national level, where the most important influenza policy decisions are made. To better define and understand the exact interactions and use of evidence, we recommend undertaking future qualitative studies at national level using small number of countries.

Objective We review published economic evaluations of influenza vaccination for children, including direct individual benefits and indirect societal benefits, to determine whether more studies are needed to fully understand the expected benefits of such strategies. Methods We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE databases to May 2006 and in-press articles to October 2006 for studies including economic analyses of influenza vaccination in children. Abstracts of all potentially relevant articles were screened. Results Fifteen relevant articles from 1983 were retained. Most were based on modelling, using previously published data and considered the societal perspective. Three were a part of prospective clinical trials. Various paediatric vaccination scenarios and parameters were considered. Vaccinating children against influenza was cost saving or cost effective in 10/15 studies, cost saving or effective only under certain conditions in three studies, and not cost saving or effective in two studies whatever the outcome or perspective considered. Conclusions Most published evidence points to an economic interest for society of vaccinating children against influenza. However, differences in study design hinder the comparison of the various vaccination strategies considered. Comparable and complete data on the burden and cost of disease, and the cost of vaccination are needed, especially outside of North America.