How might China's scientific, information, and commercial activities in the Arctic contribute to the country's broader security goals by enabling the collection of intelligence, allowing access to critical infrastructure, or providing other types of military advantages? China's activities in the Arctic have increased, and China's overall approach to strategic competition, which fuses the public with the private and the civilian sphere with the military, has heightened U.S. concerns that China might be on its way to becoming a security and military actor in the Arctic and that Russia is enabling this pathway. In this report, the authors present an analysis of China's economic, scientific, and information activities in the Arctic and call special attention to the intelligence collection and military risks that they might present, including the threat signals for these risks. The authors explore five categories of activities: natural resource exploitation, knowledge development, access to infrastructure, data transmission, and public diplomacy.

The authors assess trends in how U.S. allies and partners view the evolving competition with China and Russia and identify opportunities that the United States and the Department of the Air Force (DAF) can leverage for cooperation and coalition-building. Although many countries share U.S. concerns, their perspectives of the threat posed by China and Russia vary depending on their region, history, economy, and other factors. Current U.S. and DAF security cooperation (SC) planning efforts focus on how countries can align their policies, priorities, and investments with those of the United States. Ensuring that DAF organizations also incorporate these countries' perspectives into planning can help the DAF more effectively direct its SC activities and resources in an era of strategic competition. This research was completed in September 2022. It has not been subsequently revised.

The United States has considerable interests in the Arctic and is one of just eight countries with territory in the region. It also has a responsibility to prepare and protect its armed forces that could be called upon to secure its Arctic interests as the region becomes an increasingly active security environment. Russia continues to maintain and upgrade large-scale, credible Arctic military capabilities. Moreover, China's growing economic and scientific activities in the region could enable it to expand its influence and capabilities there. Beyond strategic competition and growing concerns over the possibility of a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) — Russia clash, the armed forces of the United States—particularly the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) — continually contend with safety, law enforcement, legal, other national security, and environmental issues in the region. The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021 requires a report on the Arctic capabilities of the armed forces. This report summarizes the findings of this research and is intended to, at a minimum, address the congressional request and could also contribute related, independent findings about needs and issues.