As ample wargaming and analysis have shown, any war with China would be economically and strategically costly, as well as fraught with the risk of escalation to nuclear war. In addition, any U.S.-China military conflict could very likely last longer than envisioned by traditional force planning scenarios, which often are designed around relatively limited objectives and call for U.S. forces and capabilities that could bring a war to a quick, decisive conclusion. This report describes a set of scenarios of such protracted conflicts and provides what could be a foundation for more-detailed planning or analysis. To allow free creative scope for the scenario development process, the authors did not place a priori constraints on the meaning of “protracted,” and therefore, the resulting scenarios feature a variety of circumstances in which the United States and China could be required to sustain military operations on much longer time frames.

China is engaged in a campaign to take control of large portions of the South China Sea, including significant portions of the exclusive economic zones of other countries, by conducting various gray zone operations that have allowed China to exert control over the region while avoiding a conventional military response from the United States and its allies and partners. China's use of various gray zone tactics to assert its territorial claims and achieve its political agenda includes maritime aggression, cyber operations, economic coercion, and online propaganda. As a matter of policy, China views these actions as a continuation of politics rather than warfare, and China's efforts are purposefully designed to be below the threshold of war. The authors identify approaches for the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) and other elements of the U.S. military to counter and deter Chinese maritime gray zone operations. The authors focus on approaches that encompass presence operations, transparency initiatives that publicize malign Chinese behaviors, efforts to spur U.S. partners and allies to help counter China's gray zone effort, and the use of non-lethal weapons to directly confront and deter China's aggressive behaviors. To conduct this study, the authors conducted an in-depth literature review of China's maritime gray zone operations, hosted an online forum of gray zone and China experts to discuss potential counter strategies, and conducted interviews with more than 45 experts from the USINDOPACOM and its subordinate service components and others in the defense community.

As uncrewed maritime vessels and the technology supporting them advance, they will play an increasingly important role in hybrid threat operations and in ways to counter them. This Working Paper analyzes the current and potential impact of uncrewed vessels in the context of hybrid threats. It first reviews the history of uncrewed surface and undersea vessels, followed by a description of how these technologies can be employed in hybrid threat operations, illustrated through a case study of a hybrid threat scenario in the Baltic Sea. Finally, the paper assesses Chinese, Russian and Iranian state-of-the-art uncrewed maritime vessel capabilities.

The United States has considerable interests in the Arctic and is one of just eight countries with territory in the region. It also has a responsibility to prepare and protect its armed forces that could be called upon to secure its Arctic interests as the region becomes an increasingly active security environment. Russia continues to maintain and upgrade large-scale, credible Arctic military capabilities. Moreover, China's growing economic and scientific activities in the region could enable it to expand its influence and capabilities there. Beyond strategic competition and growing concerns over the possibility of a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) — Russia clash, the armed forces of the United States—particularly the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) — continually contend with safety, law enforcement, legal, other national security, and environmental issues in the region. The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021 requires a report on the Arctic capabilities of the armed forces. This report summarizes the findings of this research and is intended to, at a minimum, address the congressional request and could also contribute related, independent findings about needs and issues.