Output E.1 People and institutions equipped with strengthened digital capabilities and opportunities to contribute to and benefit from inclusive digital societies

Output 5.1 Energy gap closed

Output 2.1 Open, agile, accountable and future-ready governance systems in place to co-create and deliver solutions to accelerate SDG achievement

Output 1.2 Social protection services and systems strengthened across sectors with increased investment Output 2.4 Democratic institutions and processes strengthened for an inclusive and open public sphere with expanded public engagement Output 3.2 Capacities for conflict prevention and peacebuilding strengthened at regional, national and sub-national levels and across borders Output 3.4 Integrated development solutions implemented to address the drivers of irregular and forced migration, enhance the resilience of migrants, forcibly displaced and host communities, and expand the benefits of human mobility

This paper examines China's evolving strategy of economic deterrence, arguing that while it lacks a formal doctrine, it has developed a coherent and effective system that discourages economic coercion from third parties. The authors identify five core elements underpinning China's strategy: enhancing resilience in critical sectors, fostering strategic interdependencies, maintaining a ready-to-deploy economic retaliation toolbox, building credibility through consistent coercive actions, and preparing the domestic population to absorb economic shocks. These elements are not part of an official economic deterrence strategy, but they are embedded in broader national security and economic policies and are operationalised through mechanisms such as the dual circulation strategy, long-term resource contracts, industrial subsidies, and retaliatory legal instruments like the Export Control Law. The paper distinguishes between deterrence by denial, entanglement, and punishment, noting China's shift toward deterrence by dependence — leveraging asymmetric interdependencies to discourage adversarial actions. It also highlights the importance of credibility and communication in sustaining deterrence, supported by China's track record of economic retaliation. Finally, the paper assesses the applicability of lessons from China's approach to Europe, emphasising the EU and UK's current limitations in strategic coherence, collaboration, and credibility. It calls for a more structured and collective European approach to economic deterrence, leveraging regulatory power, innovation, and strategic interdependence to safeguard sovereignty in an increasingly weaponised global economy.

Output 1.4 Equitable, resilient and sustainable systems for health and pandemic preparedness strengthened to address communicable and non-communicable diseases, including COVID-19, HIV, tuberculosis, malaria and mental health

Output 4.1 Natural resources protected and managed to enhance sustainable productivity and livelihoods

Output 1.1.1 Capacities developed across the whole of government to integrate the 2030 Agenda, the Paris Agreement and other international agreements in development plans and budgets, and to analyse progress towards the SDGs, using innovative and data-driven solutions Output 1.1.2 Marginalised groups, particularly the poor, women, people with disabilities and displaced are empowered to gain universal access to basic services and financial and non-financial assets to build productive capacities and benefit from sustainable livelihoods and jobs Output 1.2.1 Capacities at national and sub-national levels strengthened to promote inclusive local economic development and deliver basic services including HIV and related services Output 1.2.2 Enabling environment strengthened to expand public and private financing for the achievement of the SDGs Output 1.2.3 Institutions and systems enabled to address awareness, prevention and enforcement of anti-corruption measures to maximize availability of resources for poverty eradication Output 1.3.1 National capacities and evidence-based assessment and planning tools enable gender-responsive and risk-informed development investments, including for response to and recovery from crisis Output 1.4.1 Solutions scaled up for sustainable management of natural resources, including sustainable commodities and green and inclusive value chains Output 1.5.1 Solutions adopted to achieve universal access to clean, affordable and sustainable energy Output 1.6.1 Country-led measures accelerated to advance gender equality and women’s empowerment Output 1.6.2 Measures in place and implemented across sectors to prevent and respond to Sexual and Gender Based Violence (SGBV) Output 2.1.1 Low emission and climate resilient objectives addressed in national, sub-national and sectoral development plans and policies to promote economic diversification and green growth Output 2.1.2 Capacities developed for progressive expansion of inclusive social protection systems Output 2.2.1 Use of digital technologies and big data enabled for improved public services and other government functions Output 2.2.2 Constitution-making, electoral and parliamentary processes and institutions strengthened to promote inclusion, transparency and accountability Output 2.2.3 Capacities, functions and financing of rule of law and national human rights institutions and systems strengthened to expand access to justice and combat discrimination, with a focus on women and other marginalised groups Output 2.3.1 Data and risk-informed development policies, plans, systems and financing incorporate integrated and gender-responsive solutions to reduce disaster risks, enable climate change adaptation and mitigation, and prevent risk of conflict Output 2.4.1 Gender-responsive legal and regulatory frameworks, policies and institutions strengthened, and solutions adopted, to address conservation, sustainable use and equitable benefit sharing of natural resources, in line with international conventions and national legislation Output 2.5.1 Solutions developed, financed and applied at scale for energy efficiency and transformation to clean energy and zero-carbon development, for poverty eradication and structural transformation Output 2.6.1 Capacities strengthened to raise awareness on and undertake legal, policy and institutional reforms to fight structural barriers to women’s empowerment Output 1.4 Equitable, resilient and sustainable systems for health and pandemic preparedness strengthened to address communicable and non-communicable diseases, including COVID-19, HIV, tuberculosis, malaria and mental health Output 2.3 Responsive governance systems and local governance strengthened for socio economic opportunity, inclusive basic service delivery, community security, and peacebuilding Output 3.1 Institutional systems to manage multi-dimensional risks and shocks strengthened at regional, national and sub-national levels Output 3.2 Capacities for conflict prevention and peacebuilding strengthened at regional, national and sub-national levels and across borders Output 3.3 Risk informed and gender-responsive recovery solutions, including stabilization efforts and mine action, implemented at regional, national and sub-national levels

Output 2.4 Democratic institutions and processes strengthened for an inclusive and open public sphere with expanded public engagement

Output 2.4 Democratic institutions and processes strengthened for an inclusive and open public sphere with expanded public engagement

Output 4.1 Natural resources protected and managed to enhance sustainable productivity and livelihoods Output 4.2 Public and private investment mechanisms mobilized for biodiversity, water, oceans, and?climate solutions

Output 2.1 Open, agile, accountable and future-ready governance systems in place to co-create and deliver solutions to accelerate SDG achievement

Output 5.1 Energy gap closed Output 5.2 Transition to renewable energy accelerated capitalizing on technological gains, clean energy innovations and new financing mechanisms to support green recovery

Output 4.1 Natural resources protected and managed to enhance sustainable productivity and livelihoods