The response of Arctic vegetation to climate warming exhibits pronounced spatial heterogeneity, driven partly by widespread permafrost degradation. However, the role of thermokarst lake development in mediating vegetation-climate interactions remains poorly understood, particularly across heterogeneous landscapes of northeastern Siberia. This study integrated multi-source remote sensing data (2001-2021) with trend analysis, partial correlation, and a Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP)-interpreted random forest model to examine the drivers of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) variability across five levels of thermokarst lake coverage (none, low, moderate, high, very high) and two vegetation types (forest, tundra). The results show that although greening dominates the region, browning is disproportionately observed in areas with high thermokarst lake coverage (>30%), highlighting the localized reversal of regional greening trends under intensified thermokarst activity. Air temperature was identified as the dominant driver of NDVI change, whereas soil temperature and soil moisture exerted secondary but critical influences, especially in tundra ecosystems with extensive thermokarst lake development. The relative importance of these factors shifted across thermokarst lake coverage gradients, underscoring the modulatory effect of thermokarst processes on vegetation-climate feedbacks. These findings emphasize the necessity of incorporating thermokarst dynamics and landscape heterogeneity into predictive models of Arctic vegetation change, with important implications for understanding cryospheric hydrology and ecosystem responses to ongoing climate warming.

Frozen soils, including seasonally frozen ground and permafrost, are rapidly changing under a warming climate, with cascading effects on water, energy, and carbon cycles. We synthesize recent advances in the physics, observation, and modeling of frozen-soil hydrology, emphasizing freeze-thaw dynamics, infiltration regimes and preferential flow, groundwater-permafrost interactions (including talik development and advective heat), and resulting shifts in streamflow seasonality. Progress in in situ sensing, geophysics, and remote sensing now resolves unfrozen water, freezing fronts, and active-layer dynamics across scales, while land-surface and tracer-aided hydrological models increasingly represent phase change, macropore bypass, and vapor transport. Thaw-induced activation of subsurface pathways alters recharge and baseflow, influences vegetation and biogeochemistry, and modulates greenhouse-gas emissions. Key uncertainties persist in scaling micro-scale processes, parameterizing ice-impeded hydraulics, and representing abrupt thaw and wetland dynamics. We outline a tiered modeling framework, priority observations, and integration of vegetation-hydrology-carbon processes to improve projections of cold-region water resources and climate feedbacks.

The changing Arctic climate is affecting groundwater flow and storage in supra-permafrost aquifers due to groundwater recharge changes and thaw-driven alterations to aquifer properties and connectivity. Changes to shallow subsurface hydrological processes can drive extensive ecological and biogeochemical changes in addition to potential surface hydrologic regime shifts. This study uses a pan-Arctic geospatial approach to classify shallow, unconfined Arctic aquifers (supra-permafrost aquifers) as topography-limited (TL) (characterized by low permeability, wet climate, and/or low slopes) or recharge-limited (high permeability, dry climate and/or steep slopes) based on the water table ratio framework. Under current conditions, the continuous and discontinuous permafrost zones were determined to be predominantly (65%) TL, with an average net decrease of 5.6% by the year 2100 under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 conditions. This apparent stability masks local-scale heterogeneity, with change in aquifer function projected at dispersed locations throughout the Arctic, and in clustered hot spots in Siberia and the central Canadian Arctic. Coastal zones around the Arctic are more TL (94%) compared to the overall average, leaving them especially vulnerable to ocean-driven impacts on groundwater such as subsurface seawater intrusion or groundwater flooding. Arctic coasts in Siberia and eastern Canada are also particularly susceptible to water table rise due to high relative sea-level rise which may exceed the active layer thickness and result in substantive changes to saturation. Classification results are sensitive to input values, particularly hydraulic conductivity, which remains a source of uncertainty in the analysis. Despite the sparsity of Arctic data, the available open-source datasets provide valuable insight into broad spatiotemporal trends in aquifer function and highlight particularly vulnerable regions and geographic areas where uncertainty should drive additional data collection and study. These results provide new context for conceptualizing changes to shallow Arctic aquifers as the climate evolves in the 21st century.

The Southern Ocean plays an important role in the global carbon cycle by absorbing atmospheric CO2, aiding climate change mitigation. Antarctic coastal polynyas (ACPs) are key CO2 uptake areas, yet whether this CO2 is effectively sequestered as organic carbon (OC) in marine sediments, and the spatiotemporal dynamics and drivers of this process, remains unclear. Here, we reconstruct a high-resolution record of Holocene (similar to 12,000 y BP) to present-day OC accumulation fluxes and sources in ACP sediments using existing data as well as our measurements. We find that despite covering only 3% of the Southern Ocean, ACPs account for approximately 42% of the modern OC accumulation across the Southern Ocean. Since the Holocene, OC accumulation has increased ninefold due to climate warming, largely driven by marine primary production. Structural equation modeling reveals that warming enhances the biological carbon pump and OC accumulation efficiency by expanding and prolonging open water areas in ACPs, with larger ACPs showing stronger feedback. Furthermore, basal melt from ice shelves releases fine particulate matter, further boosting OC accumulation. Our findings highlight that climate warming has greatly amplified ACPs' carbon-sequestration efficiency, making them rapidly expanding and crucial carbon sinks in the Southern Ocean, with the potential to provide strong negative feedback in future climate change.

Northern basins are projected to continue warming at rates higher than the global average, with the impacts of warming compounded by concomitant deglaciation, permafrost thaw and vegetation shifts. The Mackenzie River Basin drains headwaters in the glaciated Canadian Rockies to the Arctic Ocean and is mostly underlain by permafrost. Scenarios of future change in this basin were simulated using the MESH distributed hydrological-cryospheric land surface model. MESH was forced with bias-corrected, downscaled RCM forcings and parameterized with a deep subsurface profile, organic soils, and glaciers. The model, validated against discharge, snowpack, and permafrost observations, was used to simulate 21st century hydrology and permafrost dynamics under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario, incorporating projected land cover change applied at two discrete time steps (2021 and 2065). The findings indicate a rapid acceleration of permafrost thaw. By the 2080s, most of the basin will be devoid of permafrost. By late century, river discharges shift to earlier and higher peaks in response to projected increases in precipitation, temperature and snowmelt, despite increases in evapotranspiration from longer snow-free seasons. Baseflow discharges increase in winter, due to higher precipitation and increased basin connectivity from permafrost thaw resulting in enhanced groundwater flow. Subsurface moisture storage rises slightly but the liquid water fraction increases dramatically, increasing subsurface runoff and river discharge. Canadian Rockies' deglaciation reduces summer and annual discharge in the Athabasca and Peace headwaters. Downstream and northward of the mountain headwaters the direct impacts of climate change on river discharge dominate those of changing land cover and glaciers.

The retreat of glaciers due to climate change is reshaping mountain landscapes and biodiversity. While previous research has documented vegetation succession after glacier retreat, our understanding of functional diversity dynamics is still limited. In this case study, we address the effects of glacier retreat on plant functional diversity by integrating plant traits with ecological indicator values across a 140-year chronosequence in a subalpine glacier landscape. We reveal that functional richness and functional dispersion decrease with glacier retreat, while functional evenness and functional divergence increase, suggesting a shift toward more specialized and competitive communities. Our findings highlight the critical role of ecological factors related to soil moisture, soil nutrients and light availability in shaping plant community dynamics. As years since deglaciation was a key factor in regression and machine learning models, encapsulating time-lagged, spatial and historical processes, we highlight the need of including time into phenomenological or mechanistic models predicting biodiversity change following glacier retreat. The integrative approach of this case study provides novel insights into the potential response of alpine plant communities to climate change, offering a deeper understanding of how to predict and anticipate the effects of glacier extinction on biodiversity in rapidly changing environments. (sic)(sic): (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic),(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic).(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic),(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic).(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)140(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic),(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic),(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic),(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic).(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic),(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic),(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic),(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic).(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic).(sic)(sic),(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic),(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic).(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic),(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic).

The freeze-thaw erosion zone of the Tibetan Plateau (FTZTP) maintains an ecologically fragile system with enhanced thermal sensitivity under climate warming. Vegetation phenology in this cryosphere-dominated environment acts as a crucial biophysical indicator of climate variability, showing potentially amplified responses to environmental changes relative to other ecosystems. To investigate vegetation phenological characteristics and their climate responses, we derived key phenological parameters (the start, end and length of growing season-SOS, EOS, LOS) for the FTZTP from 2001 to 2021 using MODIS EVI data and analysed their spatiotemporal patterns and climatic drivers. Results indicated that the spatial distribution of phenology was highly heterogeneous, influenced by local climate, complex topography and diverse vegetation. SOS generally exhibited a delayed trend from east to west, while EOS was progressively later from the central plateau towards the southeast and southwest. Consequently, LOS shortened along both east-west and south-north gradients. Under sustained warming and wetting, the region experienced intensified freeze-thaw cycles, characterised by a delayed freeze-start, advanced thaw-end and shortened freeze-thaw duration. Both climate warming and freeze-thaw changes drove an overall significant advancement of SOS (-3.1 days/decade), delay of EOS (+2.2 days/decade) and extension of LOS (+5.3 days/decade) over the 21-year period. Notably, an abrupt phenological shift occurred around 2015. Prior to 2015, both SOS and EOS advanced, whereas afterward, SOS transitioned to a delaying trend and EOS exhibited a markedly stronger delay, leading to a pronounced extension of LOS. This regime shift was primarily attributed to changes in hydrothermal conditions controlled by climate warming and evolving freeze-thaw dynamics, with temperature being the dominant factor and precipitation exerting seasonally differential effects. Our findings elucidate the complex responses of alpine cryospheric ecosystems to climate change, revealing freeze-thaw processes as a key modulator of vegetation phenology.

Arctic ecosystems are highly vulnerable to ongoing and projected climate change. Rapid warming and growing anthropogenic pressure are driving a profound transformation of these regions, increasingly positioning the Arctic as a persistent, globally significant source of greenhouse gases. In the Russian Arctic-a critical zone for national economic growth and transport infrastructure-intensive development is replacing natural ecosystems with anthropogenically modified ones. In this context, Nature-based Solutions (NbS) represent a vital tool for climate change adaptation and mitigation. However, many NbS successfully applied globally have limited applicability in the Arctic due to its inaccessibility, short growing season, low temperatures, and permafrost. This review demonstrates the potential for adapting existing NbS and developing new ones tailored to the Arctic's environmental and socioeconomic conditions. We analyze five key NbS pathways: forest management, sustainable grazing, rewilding, wetland conservation, and ecosystem restoration. Our findings indicate that protective and restorative measures are the most promising; these can deliver measurable benefits for both climate, biodiversity and traditional land-use. Combining NbS with biodiversity offset mechanisms appears optimal for preserving ecosystems while enhancing carbon sequestration in biomass and soil organic matter and reducing soil emissions. The study identifies critical knowledge gaps and proposes priority research areas to advance Arctic-specific NbS, emphasizing the need for multidisciplinary carbon cycle studies, integrated field and remote sensing data, and predictive modeling under various land-use scenarios.

As a critical ecological barrier in the arid and semi-arid regions of northwestern China, the spatio-temporal evolution of vegetation carbon sequestration in the Hexi Corridor is of great significance to the ecological security of this region. Based on multi-source remote sensing and meteorological data, this study integrated second-order partial correlation analysis, ridge regression, and other methods to reveal the spatio-temporal evolution patterns of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) in the Hexi Corridor from 2003 to 2022, as well as the response characteristics of GPP to air temperature, precipitation, and Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD). From 2003 to 2022, GPP in the Hexi Corridor showed an overall increasing trend, the spatial distribution of GPP showed a pattern of being higher in the east and lower in the west. In the central oasis region, intensive irrigation agriculture supported consistently high GPP values with sustained growth. Elevated air temperatures extended the growing season, further promoting GPP growth. Due to irrigation and sufficient soil moisture, the contributions of precipitation and VPD were relatively low. In contrast, desert and high-altitude permafrost areas, constrained by water and heat limitations, exhibited consistently low GPP values, which further declined due to climate fluctuations. In desert regions, high air temperatures intensified evaporation, suppressing GPP, while precipitation and VPD played more significant roles. This study provides a detailed analysis of the spatio-temporal change patterns of GPP in the Hexi Corridor and its response to climatic factors. In the future, the Hexi Corridor needs to adopt dual approaches of natural restoration and precise regulation, coordinate ecological security, food security, and economic development, and provide a scientific paradigm for carbon neutrality and ecological barrier construction in arid areas of Northwest China.

Permafrost thaw and thermokarst development pose urgent challenges to Arctic communities, threatening infrastructure and essential services. This study examines the reciprocal impacts of permafrost degradation and infrastructure in Point Lay (Kali), Alaska, drawing on field data from similar to 60 boreholes, measured and modeled ground temperature records, remote sensing analysis, and community interviews. Field campaigns from 2022-2024 reveal widespread thermokarst development and ground subsidence driven by the thaw of ice-rich permafrost. Borehole analysis confirms excess-ice contents averaging similar to 40%, with syngenetic ice wedges extending over 12 m deep. Measured and modeled ground temperature data indicate a warming trend, with increasing mean annual ground temperatures and active layer thickness (ALT). Since 1949, modeled ALTs have generally deepened, with a marked shift toward consistently thicker ALTs in the 21st century. Remote sensing shows ice wedge thermokarst expanded from 60% in developed areas by 2019, with thaw rates increasing tenfold between 1974 and 2019. In contrast, adjacent, undisturbed tundra exhibited more consistent thermokarst expansion (similar to 0.2% yr(-1)), underscoring the amplifying role of infrastructure, surface disturbance, and climate change. Community interviews reveal the lived consequences of permafrost degradation, including structural damage to homes, failing utilities, and growing dependence on alternative water and wastewater strategies. Engineering recommendations include deeper pile foundations, targeted ice wedge stabilization, aboveground utilities, enhanced snow management strategies, and improved drainage to mitigate ongoing infrastructure issues. As climate change accelerates permafrost thaw across the Arctic, this study highlights the need for integrated, community-driven adaptation strategies that blend geocryological research, engineering solutions, and local and Indigenous knowledge.