Rainfed wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production in semi-arid regions is strongly influenced by precipitation variability, soil water availability, and crop management practices. This study evaluated the effects of nutrient management under uniform weed control on soil water dynamics, weed density, and grain yield of winter wheat grown under rainfed no-till conditions in southern Kazakhstan. Field experiments were conducted during the 2018-2021 growing seasons on gray soils characterized by low organic matter and limited nitrogen and phosphorus availability. Eight fertilization treatments, including phosphorus and nitrogen combinations and a micronutrient treatment, were arranged in a randomized complete block design. Soil moisture reserves, weed density, and grain yield were analyzed in relation to precipitation variability. Productive soil moisture reserves in the 0-100 cm layer at tillering (BBCH 21-25) ranged from 155 to 178.8 mm and were closely associated with overwinter precipitation. Balanced nitrogen-phosphorus fertilization reduced weed density from 38 plants m(-2) in the control to 16 plants m(-2) under the P45N70 treatment. Yield stability varied across dry, normal, and wet years, reflecting the influence of precipitation conditions on crop performance. Overall, the results suggest balanced fertilization in no-till systems contributes to improved resource use and more stable wheat production under variable precipitation.