2026-07-01 FARMING SYSTEM 2026 4(卷), 3(期), (null页)
The North China Plain (NCP) is China's primary agricultural region for wheat and maize production. It faces severe ecological degradation owing to decades of intensive winter wheat-summer maize double cropping (Con. W-M). The excessive reliance of this system on irrigation and nitrogen inputs amplified environmental risks. Although alternative cropping systems (ACSs) have been proposed to balance food security and sustainability, fragmented evidence hinders their practical implementation. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis of 77 studies (1060 observations) to evaluate three ACS categories: optimized double-cropping systems through soil and cropping patterns (Opt.W-M), crop diversification (Opt.C), and adjusted cropping intensity (2-year triple cropping: H3Y2; single cropping: H1Y1). The results revealed trade-offs between productivity and sustainability. ACS reduced grain yields by 15%-39% compared with those of Con.W-M, with Opt.C, H3Y2, and H1Y1 showing moderate (-15.7%), moderate (-15.3%), and severe (-38.6%) losses, respectively. Maize-centric systems, which leverage the hydrothermal adaptability of crops, demonstrated superior potential yield. However, ACS reduced water and nitrogen inputs by 40%-60% and 25%-58%, respectively, while lowering the carbon footprint by 13%-40%. Opt.W-M, particularly intercropping, increased yields by 21%, whereas H3Y2 stabilized yields (-15.3%) with 41% less irrigation. Economic outcomes varied: Opt.C boosted gross income by 18.6% through high-value crops but raised costs, whereas H3Y2's lower inputs made it economically viable despite marginal returns. A critical precipitation threshold (475.5 mm yr-1) guided system suitability: above this level, intensified management was applied through optimized soil and cropping patterns; below this level, reduced intensity was maintained through stabilized H3Y2. This study provides the first quantitative framework for ACS adoption in the NCP. By prioritizing maize-centric rotations and region-specific policies (e.g., subsidies for drought-tolerant H3Y2), stakeholders can mitigate groundwater depletion while maintaining 85% of traditional yields. These insights offer a model for global semi-arid regions with similar trade-offs between intensification and sustainability.