Spatiotemporal characteristics and hydro-climatic driving factors of global vegetation greenness and resilience

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  • Global greening is typically regarded as an ecosystem amelioration signal. However, recent studies document opposing trends where greening is accompanied by declining vegetation resilience. This study uses satellite and reanalysis data (2001-2022) to characterise the synchronous and asynchronous trends of global vegetation greenness (kernel Normalised Difference Vegetation Index, kNDVI) and resilience (lag-1 autocorrelation, AR1), employing ridge regression to identify hydroclimatic drivers. Results reveal that 41.8% of the global land surface, mainly in hydrothermally abundant humid regions, exhibited greening amidst declining resilience. Conversely, 35.9% of regions, predominantly in arid and semi-arid zones, showed synergistic increases in both greenness and resilience. These divergent trajectories stem from distinct hydroclimatic controls. In arid regions, precipitation simultaneously governs vegetation growth and resilience, driving their synergistic improvement. In humid regions, temperature dominates greening, whereas resilience remains constrained by precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, creating a trade-off. This study unmasks the latent risk of diminishing resilience hidden behind global greening, offering insights into the hydrological regulation of ecosystems under changing climates.