Spatiotemporal variations of rainfall interception before and after implementation of Grain for Green Program in the Loess Plateau

Chen, Junyan , Liu, Guozheng , Wu, Jing , Zhao, Keyu , Liu, Tiegang

2026-03-01 JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 2026   667(卷), null(期), (null页)

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  • Although the Grain for Green Program (GFGP) has significantly greened the Loess Plateau (LP) since 1999, the responses of rainfall interception (RI) to climate variability and ecological restoration remain insufficiently quantified regarding the effects of the GFGP. This study employed the Gash sparse model driven by 3-hour MSWEP precipitation data to assess the differences in RI across the LP between the GFGP period (2000-2015) and the pre-GFGP period (1984-1999), and to quantify the contributions of climate change and vegetation restoration as drivers of this change through scenario simulation. Results showed that mean annual RI in the LP increased from 2.40 x 1010 m3 (38.42 mm) in 1984-1999 to 2.84 x 1010 m3 (45.56 mm) in 2000-2015, with an increase of 4.45 x 109 m3 (7.14 mm). Notably, vegetation restoration dominated this increase (94.3 %), far exceeding climate contributions (-1.5 %). RI trends shifted from an insignificant decline (-1.98 x 108 m3 yr- 1, p = 0.62) during the pre-GFGP period to a significant increase (3.91 x 108 m3 yr- 1, p = 0.02) during the GFGP period. We suggested that policy formulation should incorporate considerations of the trade-offs between ecological restoration and water resources, and advocated threshold-based strategies to balance greening and sustainable water use.