The ongoing degradation of Do & ntilde;ana National Park (Spain), particularly its fragile sand-dune pond ecosystems, highlights the urgent need for effective and comprehensive conservation efforts. Santa Olalla Pond, once the only permanent pond in the park, has faced unprecedented drying events in recent years, reflecting the severe impacts of climate change and other hydrological challenges. This study addresses these challenges by developing a robust water level model for Santa Olalla Pond, using decadal hydrological data to analyze its behavior and predict its response to future climate change scenarios from 2030 to 2060. The results reveal a significant decline in the pond's hydroperiod due to reduced precipitation and rising temperatures, consistent with its transition into a temporary pond from 2022 onward. These findings underscore the ecosystem's increasing vulnerability and emphasize the critical importance of sustainable practices, improved water resource management, and proactive policies to preserve the ecological and cultural integrity of Do & ntilde;ana National Park. La d & eacute;gradation continue du Parc National de Do & ntilde;ana (Espagne), en particulier des & eacute;cosyst & egrave;mes fragiles de sa lagune, souligne le besoin urgent d'efforts de conservation efficaces et compl & egrave;tes. La Lagune de Santa Olalla, jadis seul & eacute;tang permanent du parc, a fait face & agrave; des & eacute;pisodes de s & egrave;cheresse sans pr & eacute;c & eacute;dent dans les ann & eacute;es r & eacute;centes, qui refl & egrave;tent la gravit & eacute; des impacts du changement climatique et des autres d & eacute;fis hydrologiques. La pr & eacute;sente & eacute;tude rel & egrave;ve ces d & eacute;fis en d & eacute;veloppant un mod & egrave;le robuste du niveau de l'eau de la Lagune de Santa Olalla qui utilise les donn & eacute;es hydrologiques d & eacute;cennales pour analyser son & eacute;volution et pr & eacute;dire sa r & eacute;ponse aux futurs sc & eacute;narios de changement climatique entre 2030 et 2060. Les r & eacute;sultats montrent un raccourcissement important de la p & eacute;riode o & ugrave; la lagune est en eau, en lien avec une diminution des pluies et une augmentation des temp & eacute;ratures et en coh & eacute;rence avec son & eacute;volution vers un & eacute;tat de lagune temporaire depuis 2022. Ces r & eacute;sultats soulignent la vuln & eacute;rabilit & eacute; croissante des & eacute;cosyst & egrave;mes et mettent l'accent sur l'importance majeure des pratiques de d & eacute;veloppement durable, d'une gestion renforc & eacute;e de la ressource en eau et des politiques pro-actives de pr & eacute;servation & eacute;cologique et culturelle du Parc National de Do & ntilde;ana. La degradaci & oacute;n continua del Parque Nacional de Do & ntilde;ana (Espa & ntilde;a), especialmente sus fr & aacute;giles ecosistemas de lagunas en dunas de arena, pone de manifiesto la urgente necesidad de esfuerzos efectivos e integrales de conservaci & oacute;n. La laguna de Santa Olalla, que fue en su momento la & uacute;nica laguna permanente del parque, ha sufrido eventos de sequ & iacute;as sin precedentes en los & uacute;ltimos a & ntilde;os, reflejando los graves impactos del cambio clim & aacute;tico y otros desaf & iacute;os hidrol & oacute;gicos. Este estudio aborda estos desaf & iacute;os desarrollando un modelo robusto del nivel del agua para la laguna de Santa Olalla, utilizando datos hidrol & oacute;gicos decenales para analizar su comportamiento y predecir su respuesta a futuros escenarios de cambio clim & aacute;tico entre 2030 y 2060. Los resultados revelan un descenso significativo en el hidroperiodo de la laguna debido a la disminuci & oacute;n de precipitaciones y el aumento de las temperaturas, coherente con su transici & oacute;n a una laguna temporal a partir de 2022. Estos hallazgos subrayan la creciente vulnerabilidad del ecosistema y la importancia cr & iacute;tica de pr & aacute;cticas sostenibles, una mejor gesti & oacute;n de los recursos h & iacute;dricos y pol & iacute;ticas proactivas para preservar la integridad ecol & oacute;gica y cultural del Parque Nacional de Do & ntilde;ana. (sic)(sic)(sic)Do & ntilde;ana(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic).Santa Olalla(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic).(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)Santa Olalla(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic) 2030-2060 (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic).(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic) 2022 (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic).(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic),(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)Do & ntilde;ana(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic). A degrada & ccedil;& atilde;o cont & iacute;nua do Parque Nacional de Do & ntilde;ana (Espanha), especialmente de seus fr & aacute;geis ecossistemas de lagoas de dunas de areia, destaca a necessidade urgente de esfor & ccedil;os de conserva & ccedil;& atilde;o eficazes e abrangentes. A Lagoa de Santa Olalla, que j & aacute; foi o & uacute;nico lago permanente do parque, enfrentou eventos de seca sem precedentes nos & uacute;ltimos anos, refletindo os severos impactos das mudan & ccedil;as clim & aacute;ticas e outros desafios hidrol & oacute;gicos. Este estudo aborda esses desafios desenvolvendo um modelo robusto de n & iacute;vel de & aacute;gua para a Lagoa de Santa Olalla, utilizando dados hidrol & oacute;gicos decenais para analisar seu comportamento e prever sua resposta a futuros cen & aacute;rios de mudan & ccedil;a clim & aacute;tica de 2030 a 2060. Os resultados revelam uma queda significativa no hidroper & iacute;odo da lagoa devido & agrave; redu & ccedil;& atilde;o da precipita & ccedil;& atilde;o e ao aumento das temperaturas, consistente com sua transi & ccedil;& atilde;o para uma lagoa tempor & aacute;ria a partir de 2022. Esses achados ressaltam a crescente vulnerabilidade do ecossistema e enfatizam a import & acirc;ncia cr & iacute;tica de pr & aacute;ticas sustent & aacute;veis, melhor gest & atilde;o dos recursos h & iacute;dricos e pol & iacute;ticas proativas para preservar a integridade ecol & oacute;gica e cultural do Parque Nacional de Do & ntilde;ana.