2025-12-10 HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL 2025 70(卷), 16(期), (2953-2975页)
The semi-arid region of Brazil faces chronic water scarcity due to high evapotranspiration and recurrent droughts. This study assesses future water volume dynamics in the Epit & aacute;cio Pessoa Reservoir considering climate projections, land use and land cover (LULC) changes, and population growth between 2030 and 2060. The framework combined LULC prediction using a multilayer perceptron (MLP) model, SWAT-based hydrological simulations, and future water demand estimation. Results reveal expansion of agricultural and pasture areas and loss of open shrubby Caatinga. Climate models project intensified droughts, especially from September to November, and temperature increases up to 34 degrees C under the SSP5 scenario. The GFDL-ESM4 model yielded the highest temperature estimates. Hydrological calibration showed satisfactory performance (R-2 and NSE > 0.5). Critical low-water periods are expected between 2042 and 2049, with SSP2 producing the most severe medium- and long-term declines, as reservoir volumes frequently drop below dead storage capacity. [GRAPHICS]