Habitat quality functions as a critical metric for evaluating regional ecological health and the capacity of ecosystem services. Understanding its temporal dynamics is critical for advancing ecological civilization sustainability. Focusing on the Tacheng region, this study analyzes the evolution characteristics of land use based on long-term sequential land use data from 2003 to 2023. By coupling the PLUS and InVEST models, it predicts land use change trends under three distinct scenarios for the year 2033 and assesses the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of habitat quality in the Tacheng region from 2003 to 2033. Findings reveal: (1) The land use types in the Tacheng region are dominated by grassland and unutilized land. During 2003-2023, the area of grassland and water showed a decreasing trend, while the areas of cultivated land and unutilized land significantly increased. Among them, NDVI was identified as the primary driver influencing the expansion of cultivated land, grassland, and unutilized land in the Tacheng region, addressing the gap in quantitative contribution analysis of specific drivers in arid region studies. (2) Overall, habitat quality in the Tacheng region significantly deteriorated during 2003-2023, with areas of high habitat quality continuously decreasing and transitioning to medium and relatively low habitat quality zones. This degradation is primarily attributed to the unidirectional conversion of grassland and water into cultivated land and unutilized land. (3) Under different scenario simulations, land use and habitat quality in the Tacheng region exhibit marked differences, with habitat quality showing significant improvement, particularly under the ecological protection scenario. Compared to existing research, this study pioneers the coupling of PLUS and InVEST models in the typical arid region of the Tacheng region, implements localization of model parameters, quantifies future evolution trends of land use and habitat quality under multiple scenarios, and reveals core drivers of land use change in arid regions. This work addresses the research gap regarding habitat quality simulation and driving mechanisms in the Central Asian arid-semiarid transition zone.