Climate change significantly alters vegetation distribution patterns in arid regions, while ecological water conveyance serves as a critical intervention to modify these patterns by augmenting water availability. As a keystone species in Central Asia's water-stressed ecosystems, Populus euphratica plays a pivotal role in maintaining arid ecosystem stability, making the investigation of its habitat suitability under combined climate change and ecological water conveyance imperative. This study selected 12 variables associated with the spatial distribution of P. euphratica, including bioclimate, groundwater resources, available water storage capacity, elevation, distance to rivers, and stocking rate. Using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, we projected habitat distributions of P. euphratica across the Tarim River Basin with three scenarios: no climate change, climate change, and ecological water conveyance. The study indicated that (1) distance to rivers has the significant effect on the distribution of P. euphratica; (2) although climate change is expected to reduce the habitat suitable for P. euphratica, the implementation of ecological water conveyance is expected to lead to an expansion of its habitat; (3) the implementation of ecological water conveyance is expected to cause the habitat suitable for P. euphratica to shift toward the southeast, suggesting that this initiative has increased groundwater resources in the southeastern part of the watershed. These findings provide a scientific foundation for protecting P. euphratica and formulating effective ecological water conveyance strategies.