This study assessed potential aridity shifts in the Nazas River basin (NRB) using the De Martonne Aridity Index, historical data (1970-2000), and projections from four climate models under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6 W m-2 and SSP5-8.5 W m-2) and two time horizons (2021-2040 and 2041-2060). Additionally, anthropogenic disturbances were analyzed by comparing changes in land use and vegetation cover (LUVC) between 2003 and 2018. Results show that 64% of the NRB is currently arid. Climate models project increasing aridity, but only the CNRM-CM6-1 model shows statistically significant changes under SSP1 (2041-2060) and SSP5 (for both periods). The CNRM-CM6-1 model under the SSP5 (2041-2060) scenario projects an increase in aridity of up to 81% (54% for Mediterranean semiarid climate and 27% for semiarid climate), suggesting that 29% of the NRB, mainly in the upper part, could be threatened by increased aridity. The most severe aridity category projected was semiarid, with no expectation of reaching hyper-arid conditions in the medium term. LUVC changes between 2003 and 2018 showed no statistically significant differences. However, human settlements expanded with an annual growth rate of 6.6%, comparable to that of some major cities in Asia. Although covering a small area of the basin, human settlements play a significant role in radiative forcing. The increase in productive lands, mainly croplands, could impact CO2 retention and soil hydrodynamic processes, increasing susceptibility to erosion and the likelihood of desertification.