Trend analysis of climate-driven changes in river discharge in Nigeria's benue river basin

Godwin, John Ayuba , Singh, Shruti , Dibal, Ishaku Joshua , Kumar, Rajesh

2026-03-01 JOURNAL OF AFRICAN EARTH SCIENCES 2026   235(卷), null(期), (null页)

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  • Understanding the influence of climate variability and land use change on hydrological regimes is essential for sustainable water resource management, particularly in vulnerable regions like Nigeria's Benue River Basin. This study analyzes long-term trends from 1990 to 2023 in hydro-climatic variables and land use/land cover (LUCC) dynamics to assess combined climate and human impacts on river discharge. We employed non-parametric Mann-Kendall tests, Sen's slope estimators, and cumulative Mann-Kendall methods to detect trends in precipitation, temperature, discharge, and water levels. LUCC changes were quantified using Landsat imagery for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, validated by high-resolution Google Earth imagery and ground observations. Results indicate significant basin-wide warming (Tmax: +2.1 +/- 0.3 degrees C), increased rainfall variability, and reduced discharge (-0.18 +/- 0.05 units/year). Pearson's correlation coefficients confirmed strong linear agreement between observed and modeled hydro-climatic variables (annual discharge r = 0.97, p < 0.001; precipitation r = 0.99, p < 0.001; Fig. 5), substantiating trend robustness. LUCC analysis reveals a 21.4 % decline in forest cover alongside 29.7 % and 38 % expansions in cropland and urban areas, respectively. Regression modeling shows climate variables explain approximately 29.2 % of discharge variability, and LUCC factors about 21.5 %, jointly accounting for over 50 % of total variation (R2 = 0.51, p < 0.01). Urbanization strongly correlates with peak flow extremes, while forest loss reduces base flow and infiltration. These findings demonstrate that hydrological changes in the Benue Basin result from interacting climatic and anthropogenic drivers. Adopting combined climate-human adaptive strategies, including reforestation, green urban infrastructure, and land use regulation, will improve hydrological resilience amid escalating environmental changes.