2026-01-01 JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 2026 664(卷), null(期), (null页)
This study analyzes the southward-to-northward shifting trends of monsoonal precipitation and their connections with atmospheric circulations over different precipitation regions of Pakistan before and after the climate change era, as well as on a decadal scale from 1961 to 2020. To ensure the data quality and coverage, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were performed. Modified Mann-Kendall test was applied to validate the trends of monsoon precipitation, while Sen's slope method quantified the change rate. The influence of atmospheric indices was analyzed using Pearson correlation and stepwise regression methods. An increasing trend was observed in regions 3 and 4 during summer monsoon in the 1960s. By the 2010s, precipitation deficits appeared in the coastal zones of Pakistan. Results revealed an increase in precipitation in the core monsoon regions from 1991 to 2020, whereas there was a decrease from 1961 to 1990. Such an increasing trend is likely due to the strong positive influence of the IOD. This change indicates a significant southward to northward shifting trend of precipitation at rates of -2.37 degrees at 90 degrees E, -6.03 degrees at 93 degrees E, and -2.98 degrees at 96 degrees E longitude of Pakistan. From 1991 to 2020, summer precipitation in the central plains and southern desert regions decreased mainly due to the negative influence of the ENSO. In winter, the northwestern regions indicated decreasing trends, while the southern regions showed increasing trends from the 1980s to the 2010s. Furthermore, a reduction in precipitation was observed over the Baluchistan Plateau regions, primarily attributed to the weekend effect of ENSO and the NAO in second half era. This study plays a crucial role in regional climate assessment, and predicting the future precipitation patterns.