2025-09-01 EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY 2025 170(卷), null(期), (null页)
Rising temperatures pose a significant threat to crop production worldwide. While many studies have examined the effects of warming on crop yields, the role of soils in crop-climate interactions is often overlooked. This study investigates how soil properties influence crop yield responses to increased growing season temperatures, using an ensemble of nine global gridded crop models and 37 CMIP6 climate models under three shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios. Our findings show that, during 1980-2010, a 1 degrees C increase in temperature resulted in yield changes of -2.3 % for maize and + 3.0 % for soybean. However, under future climate scenarios of 2050-2080, yields are projected to decline by -6.6 % to -7.5 % for maize and -8.9 % to -10.7 % for soybean. Soil properties account for 51 % and 59 % of the spatial variations in temperature sensitivity for global maize and soybean yields, respectively, with soil organic carbon (SOC) emerging as the most influential factor. Improving SOC through farming and soil conservation practices is expected to reduce warming-induced yield losses by 0.5-1.1 % degrees C- 1 for maize and 1.3-2.5 % degrees C- 1 for soybean, particularly in dryland areas. These benefits diminish under more extreme warming scenarios (i.e., SSP585 vs. SSP126), but can be amplified by adopting new crop varieties with fixed growing seasons. Our findings highlight the buffering effects of SOC on crop responses to warming, suggesting a promising soil-based solution for building resilience in global food production under climate change.