Crime, deterrence and punishment revisited

2020
Despite an abundance of empirical evidence on crime spanning over 40 years, there exists no consensus on the impact of the criminal justice system on crime activity. We construct a new panel data set that contains all relevant variables prescribed by economic theory. Our identification strategy allows for a feedback relationship between crime and deterrence variables, and it controls for omitted variables and measurement error. We deviate from the majority of the literature in that we specify a dynamic model, which captures the essential feature of habit formation and persistence in aggregate behaviour. Our results show that the criminal justice system exerts a large influence on crime activity. Increasing the risk of apprehension and conviction is more influential in reducing crime than raising the expected severity of punishment.
EMPIRICAL ECONOMICS
页码:2303-2333|卷号:59|期号:5
ISSN:0377-7332
收录类型
SSCI
发表日期
2020
学科领域
循证经济学
国家
荷兰
语种
英语
DOI
10.1007/s00181-019-01758-6
其他关键词
PANEL-DATA; ECONOMIC-MODEL; TIME-SERIES; ELECTORAL CYCLES; UNIT ROOTS; POLICE; PRISON; SPECIFICATION; RESTRICTIONS; TESTS
EISSN
1435-8921
被引频次(WOS)
6
被引更新日期
2022-01
来源机构
University of Amsterdam University of Sydney Monash University
关键词
Crime Deterrence Feedback Omitted variable bias Measurement error Panel data GMM