Combining Matching and Synthetic Control to Tradeoff Biases From Extrapolation and Interpolation

2021
The synthetic control (SC) method is widely used in comparative case studies to adjust for differences in pretreatment characteristics. SC limits extrapolation bias at the potential expense of interpolation bias, whereas traditional matching estimators have the opposite properties. This complementarity motives us to propose a matching and synthetic control (or MASC) estimator as a model averaging estimator that combines the standard SC and matching estimators. We show how to use a rolling-origin cross-validation procedure to train the MASC to resolve tradeoffs between interpolation and extrapolation bias. We use a series of empirically based placebo and Monte Carlo simulations to shed light on when the SC, matching, MASC and penalized SC estimators do (and do not) perform well. Then, we apply these estimators to examine the economic costs of conflicts in the context of Spain.
JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
页码:1804-1816|卷号:116|期号:536
ISSN:0162-1459
收录类型
SSCI
发表日期
2021
学科领域
循证社会科学-方法
国家
美国
语种
英语
DOI
10.1080/01621459.2021.1979562
其他关键词
ECONOMIC COSTS
EISSN
1537-274X
资助机构
National Institute on AgingUnited States Department of Health & Human ServicesNational Institutes of Health (NIH) - USANIH National Institute on Aging (NIA) [T32AG000243]; National Science FoundationNational Science Foundation (NSF) [SES-1846832]
资助信息
Maxwell Kellogg research supported by funding fromtheNational Institute on Aging (T32AG000243). Alexander Torgovitsky research supported by National Science Foundation grant SES-1846832.
被引频次(WOS)
2
被引更新日期
2022-01
来源机构
National Bureau of Economic Research University of Chicago National Bureau of Economic Research University of Chicago
关键词
Causal inference Comparative case studies Cross-validation Forecasting Model averaging Program evaluation Synthetic control