A Semiparametric Instrumental Variable Approach to Optimal Treatment Regimes Under Endogeneity

2020
There is a fast-growing literature on estimating optimal treatment regimes based on randomized trials or observational studies under a key identifying condition of no unmeasured confounding. Because confounding by unmeasured factors cannot generally be ruled out with certainty in observational studies or randomized trials subject to noncompliance, we propose a general instrumental variable (IV) approach to learning optimal treatment regimes under endogeneity. Specifically, we establish identification of both value functionfor a given regimeand optimal regimeswith the aid of a binary IV, when no unmeasured confounding fails to hold. We also construct novel multiply robust classification-based estimators. Furthermore, we propose to identify and estimate optimal treatment regimes among those who would comply to the assigned treatment under a monotonicity assumption. In this latter case, we establish the somewhat surprising result that complier optimal regimes can be consistently estimated without directly collecting compliance information and therefore without the complier average treatment effect itself being identified. Our approach is illustrated via extensive simulation studies and a data application on the effect of child rearing on labor participation.for this article are available online.
JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
页码:162-173|卷号:116|期号:533
ISSN:0162-1459
来源机构
University of Pennsylvania
收录类型
SSCI
发表日期
2020
学科领域
循证社会科学-方法
国家
美国
语种
英语
DOI
10.1080/01621459.2020.1783272
其他关键词
ESTIMATING INDIVIDUALIZED TREATMENT; DYNAMIC TREATMENT REGIMES; ROBUST ESTIMATION; CAUSAL INFERENCE; TREATMENT RULES; LEARNING-METHODS; MODELS; IDENTIFICATION
EISSN
1537-274X
资助机构
NIHUnited States Department of Health & Human ServicesNational Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA [R01CA222147, R01AI127271]
资助信息
The authors were supported by NIH funding: R01CA222147 and R01AI127271.
被引频次(WOS)
5
被引更新日期
2022-01
关键词
Complier optimal regimes Instrumental variable Optimal treatment regimes Precision medicine Unmeasured confounding