Predicting individual effects in fixed effects panel probit models

2021
Many applied settings in empirical economics require estimation of a large number of individual effects, like teacher effects or location effects; in health economics, prominent examples include patient effects, doctor effects or hospital effects. Increasingly, these effects are the object of interest of the estimation, and predicted effects are often used for further descriptive and regression analyses. To avoid imposing distributional assumptions on these effects, they are typically estimated via fixed effects methods. In short panels, the conventional maximum likelihood estimator for fixed effects binary response models provides poor estimates of these individual effects since the finite sample bias is typically substantial. We present a bias-reduced fixed effects estimator that provides better estimates of the individual effects in these models by removing the first-order asymptotic bias. An additional, practical advantage of the estimator is that it provides finite predictions for all individual effects in the sample, including those for which the corresponding dependent variable has identical outcomes in all time periods over time (either all zeros or ones); for these, the maximum likelihood prediction is infinite. We illustrate the approach in simulation experiments and in an application to health care utilization.
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY
页码:1109-1145|卷号:184|期号:3
ISSN:0964-1998
收录类型
SSCI
发表日期
2021
学科领域
循证社会科学-方法
国家
澳大利亚
语种
英语
DOI
10.1111/rssa.12722
其他关键词
BIAS REDUCTION; ECONOMETRIC-MODEL; DEMAND; HETEROGENEITY; PARAMETERS; JACKKNIFE; IMPACTS
EISSN
1467-985X
资助机构
Australian Research CouncilAustralian Research Council [DE170100644]
资助信息
Australian Research Council, Grant/Award Number: DE170100644
被引频次(WOS)
0
被引更新日期
2022-01
来源机构
Monash University University of Melbourne University of Zurich
关键词
bias reduction binary response doctor visits fixed effects health care utilization incidental parameter bias panel data perfect prediction