Non-parametric evidence of second-leg home advantage in European football

2018
In international football (soccer), two-legged knockout ties, with each team playing at home in one leg and the final outcome decided on aggregate, are common. Many players, managers and followers seem to believe in second-leg home advantage', i.e. that it is beneficial to play at home on the second leg. A more complex effect than the well-documented usual home advantage, it is more difficult to identify, and previous statistical studies have not proved conclusive about its actuality. As opposed to previous research, the paper addresses the question from a purely non-parametric perspective, which is not based on any particular model specification which could orientate the analysis in one or the other direction. Along the way, the paper reviews the well-known shortcomings of the Wald confidence interval for a proportion, suggests new non-parametric confidence intervals for conditional probability functions, revisits the problems of bias and bandwidth selection when building confidence intervals in non-parametric regression and provides a novel bootstrap-based solution to them. Finally, the new intervals are used when analysing game outcome data for the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations) Champions and Europa Leagues from 2009-2010 to 2014-2015. A slight second-leg home advantage is evidenced.
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY
页码:1009-1031|卷号:181|期号:4
ISSN:0964-1998
来源机构
University of New South Wales Sydney
收录类型
SSCI
发表日期
2018
学科领域
循证社会科学-方法
国家
澳大利亚
语种
英语
DOI
10.1111/rssa.12338
其他关键词
BOOTSTRAP CONFIDENCE-INTERVALS; BINOMIAL PROPORTION; SPORT COMPETITIONS; REGRESSION; BANDS; SELECTION; MODELS; LEG
EISSN
1467-985X
资助机构
Faculty of Science, UNSW Sydney (Australia)
资助信息
This research was supported by a faculty research grant from the Faculty of Science, UNSW Sydney (Australia).
被引频次(WOS)
1
被引更新日期
2022-01
关键词
Confidence intervals Football Home advantage Non-parametric regression Undersmoothing