Is domestic uncertainty a local pull factor driving foreign capital inflows? New cross-country evidence

Furceri, D (通讯作者),Int Monetary Fund, 700 19th St NW, Washington, DC 20431 USA.;Furceri, D (通讯作者),Univ Palermo, Palermo, Italy.
2023-2
Foreign investors pay attention to economic and political developments in the recipient country and might decide to postpone or divert their investments when uncertainty increases. However, due to the limited availability of cross-country uncertainty data, empirical evidence on this channel is scarce. This paper provides a systematic analysis of how bank credit, portfolio debt, and portfolio equity capital inflows from 51 source coun-tries into 143 recipient countries react to an increase in political and economic uncertainty in the recipient country, proxied using the World Uncertainty Index. Our results suggest that an increase in uncertainty induces a substantial and persistent decrease in bank credit and portfolio debt inflows, and (to a lesser extent) in equity inflows. We also uncover important heterogeneities in the response of portfolio inflows. First, the effects are larger for developing economies and those with more open capital markets. Second, inflows through actively managed mutual funds are similarly sensitive to changes in uncertainty that are country-specific (purely local uncertainty) and common across countries (global uncertainty), while inflows through passive ETFs are only sensitive to changes in global uncertainty. (c) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE
卷号:130
ISSN:0261-5606|收录类别:SSCI
语种
英语
来源机构
Yonsei University; Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development (OECD); International Monetary Fund; University of Palermo
资助机构
Yonsei University Research Grant of 2022
资助信息
The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not represent those of the IMF or OECD. Comments from the editors (Mark Spiegel,Zied Ftiti and George Kouretas) and an anonymous referee substantially improved the paper. We also thank our discussants (Soyoung Kim, Robert Lukas,and Ju Hyun Pyun), Jaebin Ahn, Woojin Choi, Hayato Kato, Chang Joo Lee, Inmoo Lee, Youngjin Yun, and seminar participants at the 3rd Financial Economics Meeting (FEM-2022), KAFE SKKU International Conference on Finance, KAIST School of Business, Korea's Allied Economic Associations Annual Meeting,Korean Economic Review International Conference, Korean International Finance Conference, Seoul National University Institute of Economic Research, andWorld Bank, Kuala Lumpur Office. Jaehun Jeong and Seung Yong Yoo provided excellent research assistance. This work was (in part) supported by the Yonsei University Research Grant of 2022 (2022-22-0230).
被引频次(WOS)
0
被引频次(其他)
0
180天使用计数
1
2013以来使用计数
1
EISSN
1873-0639
出版年
2023-2
DOI
10.1016/j.jimonfin.2022.102764
WOS学科分类
Business, Finance
学科领域
循证经济学
关键词
Uncertainty Capital flows World Uncertainty Index Mutual funds ETFs COVID-19