Purpose Low back pain is associated with disability and lost productivity due to inability of workers to return to work. Personal recovery expectation beliefs may be associated with return to work outcomes in those with low back pain at high risk for chronic disability. We aimed to (1) assess whether workers' expectations for return to work, following a low back pain episode, are associated with subsequent return to work; and (2) explore the relationships between return to work expectations and other prognostic factors in their association with work outcomes. Methods We conducted an Individual Participant Data (IPD) meta-analysis using data from five prospective cohort studies identified by a Cochrane prognostic factor review. A one-stage IPD meta-analysis approach was applied. Multi-level mixed effects models were used to determine the unadjusted and adjusted associations between expectations and return to work (logistic regression) and time to return to work (parametric survival models with Weibull distribution). Results The final dataset included 2302 participants. Positive expectations for return to work were associated with return to work at follow-up in both unadjusted (Odds Ratio (OR) 2.95; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 2.21, 3.95) (n = 2071) and comprehensively adjusted (OR 2.01; 95% CI 1.46, 2.77) (n = 1109) models. Similar findings were identified for shorter length of time to return to work in both unadjusted (HR 2.40; 95% CI 2.09, 2.75) (n = 1156) and minimally adjusted (HR 2.43; 95% CI 2.12, 2.79) (n = 1154) models. Conclusions Results suggest workers with low expectations for return to work are at increased risk for long-term work disability.