Development and Validation of a Novel Pre-Pregnancy Score Predictive of Preterm Birth in Nulliparous Women Using Data from Italian Healthcare Utilization Databases

Cantarutti, A (通讯作者),Univ Milano Bicocca, Dept Stat & Quantitat Methods, I-20126 Milan, Italy.;Cantarutti, A (通讯作者),Univ Milano Bicocca, Natl Ctr Healthcare Res & Pharmacoepidemiol, I-20126 Milan, Italy.
2022-8
Background: Preterm birth is a major worldwide public health concern, being the leading cause of infant mortality. Understanding of risk factors remains limited, and early identification of women at high risk of preterm birth is an open challenge. Objective: The aim of the study was to develop and validate a novel pre-pregnancy score for preterm delivery in nulliparous women using information from Italian healthcare utilization databases. Study Design: Twenty-six variables independently able to predict preterm delivery were selected, using a LASSO logistic regression, from a large number of features collected in the 4 years prior to conception, related to clinical history and socio-demographic characteristics of 126,839 nulliparous women from Lombardy region who gave birth between 2012 and 2017. A weight proportional to the coefficient estimated by the model was assigned to each of the selected variables, which contributed to the Preterm Birth Score. Discrimination and calibration of the Preterm Birth Score were assessed using an internal validation set (i.e., other 54,359 deliveries from Lombardy) and two external validation sets (i.e., 14,703 and 62,131 deliveries from Marche and Sicily, respectively). Results: The occurrence of preterm delivery increased with increasing the Preterm Birth Score value in all regions in the study. Almost ideal calibration plots were obtained for the internal validation set and Marche, while expected and observed probabilities differed slightly in Sicily for high Preterm Birth Score values. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 60%, 61% and 56% for the internal validation set, Marche and Sicily, respectively. Conclusions: Despite the limited discriminatory power, the Preterm Birth Score is able to stratify women according to their risk of preterm birth, allowing the early identification of mothers who are more likely to have a preterm delivery.
HEALTHCARE
卷号:10|期号:8
收录类别:SCIE
语种
英语
来源机构
University of Milano-Bicocca; University of Milano-Bicocca; Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR); Istituto Ricerca l'Innovazione Biomedica (IRIB-CNR); Marche Polytechnic University; University of Catania; Ospedale di Vimercate; University of Milano-Bicocca
资助信息
This study was funded by grants from the Sicily Region [Messa a punto di un modello di valutazione della qualita dei percorsi di gestione integrata per alcune condizioni di cronicita project, grant number H45J19001550002], Italian Ministry of Health [Modelli per il monitoraggio e la valutazione delle cure integrate (CI) nell'ambito del Nuovo Sistema di Garanzia dell'assistenza sanitaria project, grant number J59H06000160001] and Italian Ministry of the Education, University and Research [Fondo d'Ateneo per la Ricerca, year 2020, grant number 2020-ATE-0541].
被引频次(WOS)
0
被引频次(其他)
0
180天使用计数
0
2013以来使用计数
0
EISSN
2227-9032
出版年
2022-8
DOI
10.3390/healthcare10081443
学科领域
循证公共卫生
关键词
preterm birth score real-world evidence healthcare utilization database nulliparous
资助机构
Sicily Region [Messa a punto di un modello di valutazione della qualita dei percorsi di gestione integrata per alcune condizioni di cronicita project] Italian Ministry of Health [Modelli per il monitoraggio e la valutazione delle cure integrate (CI) nell'ambito del Nuovo Sistema di Garanzia dell'assistenza sanitaria project] Italian Ministry of the Education, University and Research [Fondo d'Ateneo per la Ricerca, year 2020]
WOS学科分类
Health Care Sciences & Services Health Policy & Services