Examining Insensitivity to Probability in Evidence-Based Communication of Relative Risks: The Role of Affect and Communication Format

Heard, CL (通讯作者),London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, Dept Management, Houghton St, London WC2A 2AE, England.
2022-10
Affect can influence judgments of event riskiness and use of risk-related information. Two studies (Ns: 85 and 100) examined the insensitivity-to-probability effect-where people discount probability information when scenarios are affect-rich-applying it to evidence-informed risk communication. We additionally investigated whether this effect is moderated by format, based on predictions from the evaluability and pattern-recognition literatures, suggesting that graphical formats may attenuate insensitivity to probability. Participants completed a prior beliefs questionnaire (Study 1), and risk perception booklet (both studies) that presented identical statistical information about the relative risks associated with two scenarios-one with an affect-rich outcome, the other an affect-poorer outcome. In Study 1, this was presented graphically. In Study 2, information was presented in one of three formats: written, tabular, or graphical. Participants provided their perceptions of the risk for each scenario at a range of risk-levels. The affect-rich scenario was perceived as higher in risk, and, importantly, despite presenting identical relative risk information in both scenarios, was associated with a reduced sensitivity to probability information (both studies). These differences were predicted by participants' prior beliefs concerning the scenario events (Study 1) and were larger for the single-item written format than graphical format (Study 2). The findings illustrate that insensitivity to probability information can occur in evidence-informed risk communications and highlight how communication format can moderate this effect. This interplay between affect and format therefore reflects an important consideration for information designers and researchers.
RISK ANALYSIS
卷号:42|期号:10|页码:2145-2159
ISSN:0272-4332|收录类别:SCIE
语种
英语
来源机构
University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; King's College London
资助信息
This research was funded by a PhD studentship awarded to the first author from the University of Cambridge (Winton Fund) and the UK Economic Social Research Council (ESRC).r Affiliations have changed for both authors since initial data collection. Data for Study 1 was collected while both authors were working in the Department of Psychology at the University of Essex, while Study 2 was conducted while both authors were working at the Department of Psychology at King's College London.
被引频次(WOS)
0
被引频次(其他)
0
180天使用计数
1
2013以来使用计数
7
EISSN
1539-6924
出版年
2022-10
DOI
10.1111/risa.13862
关键词
Affect information format insensitivity-to-probability effect risk communication risk perception sensitivity to probabilities
资助机构
University of Cambridge (Winton Fund) UK Economic Social Research Council (ESRC)(UK Research & Innovation (UKRI)Economic & Social Research Council (ESRC))
WOS学科分类
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
学科领域
循证公共卫生 循证社会科学-综合