This report is intended to stimulate thinking among policymakers about possible impacts of the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) on geopolitics and the world order by highlighting potential future scenarios for AGI's governance and its effects on global power dynamics. In this report, the authors focus on a variety of impacts — some of which are perhaps unlikely but significant — arising from AGI's development and deployment that could fundamentally alter the existing geopolitical order. To drive thinking about these potential world-changing impacts, the authors develop eight illustrative scenarios based on the extent of centralization of AGI development and its geopolitical outcomes. These scenarios cover AGI impacts that empower the United States, that empower U.S. competitors, that cause a significant geopolitical shift, and that result in an interruption in the development of AGI. These scenarios are designed to demonstrate how the extent of centralization in AGI development is a crucial determinant of the geopolitical outcomes that might materialize. In more-centralized scenarios, either the United States or an adversary could gain significant advantages, whereas decentralized development might lead to a multilateral governance model or even geopolitical destabilization if nonstate actors become significantly more powerful because of the development of AGI.

A substantial divide has developed between the United States and China since 2017, largely driven by both nations' fundamentally different, and perhaps irreconcilable, objectives and priorities. While conflict is possible, it is also unlikely, as leaders in both countries desperately want to avoid war. The more likely future for US-China relations is one involving heightened economic and technological competition, ongoing regional tension as China continues to coerce its neighbours, and increasing pessimism in both Washington and Beijing about their ability to deter and counter each other. In this environment, meaningful cooperation and improved relations will be improbable.