What does a future U.S. economy look like that will meet domestic needs, sustain national security, and operate effectively in a global economy characterized by strategic economic competition? And what are the available policy pathways for achieving that vision? This report presents the principal findings of an exploratory analysis that applies participatory foresight to answer both questions. In 2023, RAND researchers brought together a diverse group of experts and challenged them to envision the details of a desirable U.S. economy in 2040 and the conditions needed to realize that future. Over two workshops, the experts engaged in an economic and institutional analysis, specifying elements of a vision addressed to domestic, security, and strategic competitive needs. Workshop participants used an innovative and iterative approach to participatory foresight known as Vision, Strategic Concepts, Assumptions, Robust Pathways (VSCARP) that employs a suite of four foresight techniques. Using VSCARP helped participants identify assumptions necessary to achieve their vision for the U.S. economy in 2040. It also allowed participants to develop and map policy pathways that may enable or impede such a future and identify important elements for crafting a robust strategy to achieve goals while confronting uncertainty. In doing so, they provide a template for similar structured multilateral or cross-agency deliberations grappling with wicked problems and deep uncertainty. RAND researchers summarize the challenges and successes of undertaking such a participatory foresight process, and they discuss the many complex and interrelated policy pathways toward possible mid-century futures that the process uncovered. This report is the second of a four-part series in which RAND researchers considered different aspects of U.S.-China economic competition. Part 1 presents economic and institutional analyses of U.S.-China economic competition. Parts 3 and 4 describe two economic competition games that explore the dynamics of multiple countries trying to ensure their own economic health.

The potential emergence of a seabed mining industry has important ramifications for the diversification of critical mineral supply chains, revenues for developing nations with substantial terrestrial mining sectors, and global geopolitics. In this report, the authors present the results of a multi-pronged examination of each of these issues, exploring the likelihood and magnitude of their impacts to better inform planning and policymaking. The goal of their analysis was to evaluate the potential for seabed mining to diversify critical mineral supply chains, the opportunity and appetite for doing so, the factors influencing the viability of a seabed mining industry, and the broader implications of establishing a global seabed mining industry. They used several methods to accomplish these objectives, including a literature review, expert interviews, economic modeling, and an expert workshop. The authors found that the emergence of a seabed mining industry would introduce a new source of supply for critical minerals that are key elements for energy transition and defense technologies, and this would present several opportunities and challenges for the United States in terms of diversifying critical mineral supply chains away from China, cooperating with allies and partners, working with developing nations, and addressing environmental, regulatory, and security concerns. They offer several recommendations for the U.S. government to address these issues.