A substantial divide has developed between the United States and China since 2017, largely driven by both nations' fundamentally different, and perhaps irreconcilable, objectives and priorities. While conflict is possible, it is also unlikely, as leaders in both countries desperately want to avoid war. The more likely future for US-China relations is one involving heightened economic and technological competition, ongoing regional tension as China continues to coerce its neighbours, and increasing pessimism in both Washington and Beijing about their ability to deter and counter each other. In this environment, meaningful cooperation and improved relations will be improbable.

In this report, the authors explore possible future cooperation scenarios in which the Russian Armed Forces and the People's Liberation Army could operate together as coalition partners. The authors examine historical patterns of Russian and Chinese alliance behavior as well as current military-to-military engagements between these two militaries that include exercises, training events, such operational activities as joint maritime and air patrols, and high-level exchanges. Given these military engagement trends, three scenarios that illustrate how Russian and Chinese forces might operate together under different strategic and operational circumstances are then examined. These scenarios are then used to identify the prospects and pitfalls for future Russian and Chinese military cooperation in conflict and to explore implications for U.S. policymakers, commanders, and planners.