DOI
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00326.1
How Climate Change Affects Extremes in Maize and Wheat Yield in Two Cropping Regions
论文题名译名
气候变化如何影响两个种植区玉米和小麦产量的极值
出版者
American Meteorological Society
摘要
Downscaled climate model projections from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were used to force a dynamic vegetation agricultural model (Agro-IBIS) and simulate yield responses to historical climate and two future emissions scenarios for maize in the U.S. Midwest and wheat in southeastern Australia. In addition to mean changes in yield, the frequency of high- and low-yield years was related to changing local hydroclimatic conditions. Particular emphasis was on the seasonal cycle of climatic variables during extreme-yield years and links to crop growth.
While historically high (low) yields in Iowa tend to occur during years with anomalous wet (dry) growing season, this is exacerbated in the future. By the end of the twenty-first century, the multimodel mean (MMM) of growing season temperatures in Iowa is projected to increase by more than 5°C, and maize yield is projected to decrease by 18%. For southeastern Australia, the frequency of low-yield years rises dramatically in the twenty-first century because of significant projected drying during the growing season. By the late twenty-first century, MMM growing season precipitation in southeastern Australia is projected to decrease by 15%, temperatures are projected to increase by 2.8°–4.5°C, and wheat yields are projected to decline by 70%. Results highlight the sensitivity of yield projections to the nature of hydroclimatic changes. Where future changes are uncertain, the sign of the yield change simulated by Agro-IBIS is uncertain as well. In contrast, broad agreement in projected drying over southern Australia across models is reflected in consistent yield decreases for the twenty-first century. Climatic changes of the order projected can be expected to pose serious challenges for continued staple grain production in some current centers of production, especially in marginal areas.
中文摘要
耦合模型相互比较项目（CMIP5）第5阶段的缩小气候模型预测用于强制建立动态植被农业模型（Agro IBIS），并模拟美国中西部玉米和澳大利亚东南部小麦对历史气候和两种未来排放情景的产量响应。除了产量的平均变化外，高产和低产年份的频率也与当地水文气候条件的变化有关。特别强调了极端产量年份气候变量的季节性循环以及与作物生长的联系。虽然爱荷华州的历史高（低）产量往往发生在湿（干）生长季节异常的年份，但这种情况在未来会加剧。到21世纪末，爱荷华州生长季节温度的多模型平均值（MMM）预计将增加5°C以上，玉米产量预计将下降18%。对于澳大利亚东南部来说，由于生长季节预计会出现严重干旱，21世纪低产年份的频率急剧上升。到21世纪末，澳大利亚东南部MMM生长季节的降水量预计将减少15%，气温预计将上升2.8°-4.5°C，小麦产量预计将下降70%。结果突出了产量预测对水文气候变化性质的敏感性。在未来变化不确定的情况下，Agro IBIS模拟的产量变化迹象也不确定。相比之下，各模型对澳大利亚南部预计干旱的广泛一致性反映在21世纪产量的持续下降中。预计订单的气候变化将对当前一些生产中心，特别是边缘地区的主粮持续生产构成严重挑战。
来源智库
Consortium for Science, Policy, and Outcomes (United States)
版权信息
© 2015 American Meteorological Society
NSTL唯一标识符
JA202304210000007ZK
附件
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1520-0442-jcli-d-13-00326.1 (2).pdf
6.9 MB
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