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Land use-induced soil carbon loss in the dry tropics nearly offsets gains in northern lands

Wang, Huan ， Ciais, Philippe ， Yang, Hui ， Smith, Pete ， Grassi, Giacomo ， Schwingshackl, Clemens ， Panagos, Panos ， Bar-On, Yinon ， Sitch, Stephen ， Chevallier, Frederic ， Palmer, Paul I. ， Li, Xiaojun ， Hong, Songbai ， Chang, Jinfeng ， Albergel, Clement ， Fan, Lei ， Wang, Kai ， Liu, Laibao ， Frappart, Frederic ， Wigneron, Jean-Pierre

2025-11-14 NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 2025   16(卷), 1(期), (null页)

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    • Soil carbon changes are difficult to measure globally, and global models are poorly constrained. Here, we propose a framework to map annual changes in soil carbon and litter (SOCL) as the difference between the net land CO2 flux from atmospheric inversions and satellite-based maps of biomass changes. We show that SOCL accumulated globally at a rate of about 0.34 +/- 0.30 ( +/- 1 sigma) billion tonnes of carbon per year (PgC yr-1) during 2011-2020. The largest SOCL sink is found in boreal regions (0.93 +/- 0.45 PgC yr-1 in total) particularly in undisturbed peatlands and managed forests. The largest losses occur in the dry tropics (-0.50 +/- 0.47 PgC yr-1) and correspond with agricultural expansion from land use change, cropland management and grazing. By contrast, forests in the wet tropics act as a net soil carbon sink (0.32 +/- 0.35 PgC yr-1). Our findings highlight the large mitigation opportunities in the dry tropics to restore agricultural soil carbon.

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