ANALYSING PLANT CLOSURE EFFECTS USING TIME-VARYING MIXTURE-OF-EXPERTS MARKOV CHAIN CLUSTERING

2018
In this paper we study data on discrete labor market transitions from Austria. In particular, we follow the careers of workers who experience a job displacement due to plant closure and observe-over a period of 40 quarters-whether these workers manage to return to a steady career path. To analyse these discrete-valued panel data, we apply a new method of Bayesian Markov chain clustering analysis based on inhomogeneous first order Markov transition processes with time-varying transition matrices. In addition, a mixture-of-experts approach allows us to model the probability of belonging to a certain cluster as depending on a set of covariates via a multinomial logit model. Our cluster analysis identifies five career patterns after plant closure and reveals that some workers cope quite easily with a job loss whereas others suffer large losses over extended periods of time.
ANNALS OF APPLIED STATISTICS
页码:1796-1830|卷号:12|期号:3
ISSN:1932-6157
收录类型
SSCI
发表日期
2018
学科领域
循证社会科学-方法
国家
奥地利
语种
英语
DOI
10.1214/17-AOAS1132
其他关键词
DISPLACED WORKERS; UNOBSERVED HETEROGENEITY; INITIAL CONDITIONS; LONGITUDINAL DATA; JOB DISPLACEMENT; CATEGORICAL-DATA; EARNINGS LOSSES; MODEL; PATTERNS; DISTRIBUTIONS
EISSN
1941-7330
资助机构
Austrian Science Fund (FWF)Austrian Science Fund (FWF) [S10309-G16]; CD Laboratory Ageing, Health and the Labor Market
资助信息
Supported by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF): S10309-G16 (NRN The Austrian Center for Labor Economics and the Analysis of the Welfare State) and the CD Laboratory Ageing, Health and the Labor Market.
被引频次(WOS)
2
被引更新日期
2022-01
来源机构
Vienna University of Economics & Business Vienna University of Economics & Business Johannes Kepler University Linz
关键词
Transition data Markov chain Monte Carlo multinomial logit panel data inhomogeneous Markov chains