Predicting employee absenteeism for cost effective interventions

2021
This paper describes a decision support system designed for a Belgian Human Resource (HR) and Well-Being Service Provider. Their goal is to improve health and well-being in the workplace, and to this end, the task is to identify groups of employees at risk of sickness absence who can then be targeted with interventions aiming to reduce or prevent absences. To facilitate deployment, we apply a range of existing machine-learning methods to obtain predictions at monthly intervals using real HR and payroll data that contains no health-related predictors. We model employee absence as a binary classification problem with loss asymmetry and conceptualise a misclassification cost matrix of employee sickness absence. Model performance is evaluated using cost-based metrics, which have intuitive interpretation. We also demonstrate how this problem can be approached when costs are unknown. The proposed flexible evaluation procedure is not restricted to a specific model or domain and can be applied to address other HR analytics questions when deployed. Our approach of considering a wider range of methods and cost-based performance evaluation is novel in the domain of absenteeism prediction.
DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
卷号:147
ISSN:0167-9236
收录类型
SSCI
发表日期
2021
学科领域
循证管理学
国家
比利时
语种
英语
DOI
10.1016/j.dss.2021.113539
其他关键词
SICKNESS ABSENCE; CLASS-IMBALANCE; LONG-TERM; HEALTH; WORK; PERFORMANCE; PROGRAMS; MODELS
EISSN
1873-5797
资助机构
Institute for the encouragement of Scientific Research and Innovation of Brussels - InnovirisInnoviris [2017Explore61 AIWHRM]; Vrije Universiteit Brussel, the Flemish Supercomputer Center (VSC)
资助信息
This research was funded by the Institute for the encouragement of Scientific Research and Innovation of Brussels - Innoviris (Project reference: 2017Explore61 AIWHRM) . The data for this research was kindly provided by Attentia, specialist in HR and Wellbeing. Computational resources and services were provided by the Shared ICT Services Centre funded by the Vrije Universiteit Brussel, the Flemish Supercomputer Center (VSC) . We also thank the anonymous reviewers for their usefu l comments that helped improve this work.
被引频次(WOS)
1
被引更新日期
2022-01
来源机构
Vrije Universiteit Brussel University of Bergen
关键词
Cost-sensitive learning Classification HR analytics Absenteeism prediction