Testing for Jump Spillovers Without Testing for Jumps

2020
This article develops statistical tools for testing conditional independence among the jump components of the daily quadratic variation, which we estimate using intraday data. To avoid sequential bias distortion, we do not pretest for the presence of jumps. If the null is true, our test statistic based on daily integrated jumps weakly converges to a Gaussian random variable if both assets have jumps. If instead at least one asset has no jumps, then the statistic approaches zero in probability. We show how to compute asymptotically valid bootstrap-based critical values that result in a consistent test with asymptotic size equal to or smaller than the nominal size. Empirically, we study jump linkages between US futures and equity index markets. We find not only strong evidence of jump cross-excitation between the SPDR exchange-traded fund and E-mini futures on the S&P 500 index, but also that integrated jumps in the E-mini futures during the overnight period carry relevant information. for this article are available as an online supplement.
JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
页码:1214-1226|卷号:115|期号:531
ISSN:0162-1459
收录类型
SSCI
发表日期
2020
学科领域
循证社会科学-方法
国家
英国
语种
英语
DOI
10.1080/01621459.2019.1609971
其他关键词
P 500 FUTURES; PRICE DISCOVERY; LIMIT-THEOREMS; STOCK; VOLATILITY; INFERENCE; BOOTSTRAP; VOLUME; NOISE; INDEX
EISSN
1537-274X
资助机构
ESRCUK Research & Innovation (UKRI)Economic & Social Research Council (ESRC) [RES-062-23-0311]; FAPESPFundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo (FAPESP) [2013/22930-0]; CNPqConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e Tecnologico (CNPQ) [302272/2014-3]; ESRCUK Research & Innovation (UKRI)Economic & Social Research Council (ESRC) [ES/F015909/1] Funding Source: UKRI
资助信息
This work was partially supported by the ESRC (RES-062-23-0311), FAPESP (2013/22930-0), and CNPq (302272/2014-3).
被引频次(WOS)
0
被引更新日期
2022-01
来源机构
University of Surrey Imperial College London Getulio Vargas Foundation
关键词
Conditional independence Jump intensity Kernel smoothing Quadratic variation Realized measure