Estimation of causal effects with small data in the presence of trapdoor variables

2021
We consider the problem of estimating causal effects of interventions from observational data when well-known back-door and front-door adjustments are not applicable. We show that when an identifiable causal effect is subject to an implicit functional constraint that is not deducible from conditional independence relations, the estimator of the causal effect can exhibit bias in small samples. This bias is related to variables that we call trapdoor variables. We use simulated data to study different strategies to account for trapdoor variables and suggest how the related trapdoor bias might be minimized. The importance of trapdoor variables in causal effect estimation is illustrated with real data from the Life Course 1971-2002 study. Using this data set, we estimate the causal effect of education on income in the Finnish context. Bayesian modelling allows us to take the parameter uncertainty into account and to present the estimated causal effects as posterior distributions.
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY
页码:1030-1051|卷号:184|期号:3
ISSN:0964-1998
来源机构
University of Jyvaskyla
收录类型
SSCI
发表日期
2021
学科领域
循证社会科学-方法
国家
芬兰
语种
英语
DOI
10.1111/rssa.12699
其他关键词
PROPENSITY SCORE; R PACKAGE; MODELS
EISSN
1467-985X
资助机构
Academy of FinlandAcademy of FinlandEuropean Commission [311877]
资助信息
Academy of Finland, Grant/Award Number: 311877
被引频次(WOS)
1
被引更新日期
2022-01
关键词
Bayesian estimation bias causality functional constraint identifiability