Long-Run Effects in Dynamic Systems: New Tools for Cross-Lagged Panel Models

Shamsollahi, A (通讯作者),ESSEC Business Sch, Dept Mkt, F-95021 Cergy Pontoise, France.
Cross-lagged panel models (CLPMs) are common, but their applications often focus on short-run effects among temporally proximal observations. This addresses questions about how dynamic systems may immediately respond to interventions, but fails to show how systems evolve over longer timeframes. We explore three types of long-run effects in dynamic systems that extend recent work on impulse responses, which reflect potential long-run effects of one-time interventions. Going beyond these, we first treat evaluations of system (in)stability by testing for permanent effects, which are important because in unstable systems even a one-time intervention may have enduring effects. Second, we explore classic econometric long-run effects that show how dynamic systems may respond to interventions that are sustained over time. Third, we treat accumulated responses to model how systems may respond to repeated interventions over time. We illustrate tests of each long-run effect in a simulated dataset and we provide all materials online including user-friendly R code that automates estimating, testing, reporting, and plotting all effects (see https://doi.org/10.26188/13506861) . We conclude by emphasizing the value of aligning specific longitudinal hypotheses with quantitative methods.
ORGANIZATIONAL RESEARCH METHODS
卷号:25|期号:3|页码:435-458
ISSN:1094-4281|收录类别:SSCI
语种
英语
来源机构
ESSEC Business School; University of Melbourne
资助信息
This research was supported by the Australian Research Council's Future Fellowship scheme (project FT140100629) and the Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship.
被引频次(WOS)
8
被引频次(其他)
8
180天使用计数
3
2013以来使用计数
11
EISSN
1552-7425
出版年
2022-7
DOI
10.1177/1094428121993228
学科领域
循证管理学
关键词
longitudinal theory longitudinal modeling causal inference long-run effects cross-lagged panel model human resources management organizational performance
资助机构
Australian Research Council's Future Fellowship scheme(Australian Research Council) Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship(Australian GovernmentDepartment of Industry, Innovation and Science) Australian Research Council(Australian Research Council)
WOS学科分类
Psychology, Applied Management