Growing threat of climate-induced abrupt dry-wet transitions in Northern China

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108325
2025-06-27
Atmospheric Research
Cheng Ji , Evgenios Agathokleous , Lei Ju , Zhiwei Yu , Xiaorui Zhu , Tong Jiang , Buda Su , Guojie Wang , Sheying Tao , Lijuan Miao , Shao Sun , Qiang Liu
A warming climate is driving an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall. These events are increasingly occurring in rapid succession or simultaneously, creating compound effects that amplify their overall impact. Among these, Drought-Wet Abrupt Alternation events (DWAA) - rapid transitions between drought conditions and extreme wet periods (characterized by heavy precipitation) - are becoming more frequent. Northern China, spanning multiple climate subregions and strongly influenced by various monsoon systems, serves as a typical example of such events. Using 40 years of historical meteorological data (1980–2020), we examined the spatiotemporal patterns of DWAA across Northern China and identified the North China Plain and the Loess Plateau as primary hotspots. In comparison, drought-to-wet transitions (DTW) posed a higher risk level to Northern China than wet-to-drought transitions (WTD), characterized by generally more intense transition magnitudes and a more pronounced increasing trend in frequency over the past 40 years. Crucially, the Loess Plateau and northern North China Plain emerged as areas most severely affected, identified as high-frequency zones (recording eight or more events per decade) and high-risk areas for both DTW and WTD. Over 50 % of DTW occurred in summer, while nearly 80 % of WTD took place in summer and autumn—periods crucial for both agricultural productivity and ecosystem health. This seasonal concentration is driven by climate warming, which has intensified the concentration of precipitation and, in turn, heightened the severity of dry-wet transitions. Our research underscores the urgent need for improved disaster risk management, water resource planning, and climate adaptation strategies in these vulnerable regions.