Report The Panel agreed on the outline of the 2027 IPCC Methodology Report on Carbon Dioxide Removal Technologies, Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (Additional guidance) at its 63rd Session held in Lima, Peru from 27-30 October 2025 (Decision IPCC-LXIII-6). The report will be a single Methodology Report comprising an Overview Chapter and six volumes consistent with the format of the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. The structure of the Methodology Report is consistent with the 2006 IPCC Guidelines so as to make it easier for inventory compilers to use this Methodology Report with the 2006 IPCC Guidelines. Topics that will be addressed include: Transport, injection and sequestering of CO2 in relation to enhanced oil, gas, and coal-bed methane recovery Production of products containing or derived from captured and/or removed CO2 Carbonation of cement and lime-based structures Soil carbon sinks and related emissions enhanced through biochar and weathering and other elements Coastal wetlands carbon dioxide removal types not in previous IPCC Guidelines as well as additional information on mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrass in coastal waters Durable biomass products Carbon dioxide capture from combustion and process gases Direct air capture Carbon dioxide utilisation Carbon dioxide transport including cross border issues Carbon dioxide injection and storage CO2 removal through direct capture of CO2 from water already processed by inland and coastal facilities; and related elements across the range of categories of the IPCC Guidelines. The national greenhouse gas inventory includes sources and sinks occurring within the territory over which a country has jurisdiction. Over 150 experts are expected to participate in the writing process, which will be completed by 2027. The participants will be selected by the Task Force Bureau taking into account scientific and technical expertise, geographical and gender balance to the extent possible in line with Appendix A to the Principles Governing IPCC Work. The First Lead Authors’ meeting will be held in Rome, Italy, in April 2026. Preparatory Work The decision by the Panel to prepare this Methodology Report was informed by the work of experts at the scoping meeting held in Copenhagen, Denmark, from 14-16 October 2024. Prior to the scoping meeting, an expert meeting was held at Vienna, Austria 1-3 July 2024. These meetings considered Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) methods mentioned in the AR6 WGIII Report as a starting point for discussion and noted that several CDR activities have been already covered by the existing IPCC Guidelines. More Information The IPCC Secretary has written to national government focal points inviting nominations of authors by 12 December 2025.

Fast Facts Medicaid programs that cover prescription drugs are generally required to cover drugs that are (1) FDA approved and (2) made by a manufacturer that participates in the Medicaid Drug Rebate Program. 13 Medicaid programs didn’t cover Mifeprex and its generic equivalent, Mifepristone Tablets, 200 mg, when required. These drugs are used for medical abortion. We recommended the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services ensure Medicaid programs comply with federal requirements for covering Mifepristone Tablets, 200 mg. We also reiterated our 2019 recommendation on Mifeprex, which hasn’t been implemented. White pills spilling from a pill bottle. Skip to Highlights Highlights What GAO Found Medicaid programs that choose to cover outpatient prescription drugs are required to cover all Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved drugs for their medically accepted indications when those drugs are made by a manufacturer that participates in the Medicaid Drug Rebate Program (MDRP), except as outlined in federal law. The FDA has approved two drugs—Mifeprex in 2000 and its generic equivalent in 2019, referred to as Mifepristone Tablets, 200 mg—for the medical termination of an intrauterine pregnancy, known as a medical abortion. Danco Laboratories and GenBioPro are the exclusive manufacturers of Mifeprex and Mifepristone Tablets, 200 mg, respectively, and both manufacturers participate in the MDRP. Medicaid programs in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico cover prescription drugs and participate in the MDRP. According to officials from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS)—the federal agency within the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) responsible for ensuring Medicaid programs’ compliance—none of the MDRP’s statutory exceptions apply to Mifeprex or Mifepristone Tablets, 200 mg. Thus, these 52 Medicaid programs must cover these drugs when prescribed for medical abortion in circumstances eligible for federal funding, such as when the pregnancy is the result of rape or incest. GAO identified gaps in Medicaid programs’ coverage of Mifeprex and Mifepristone Tablets, 200 mg. Officials from 35 of the 49 programs who responded to GAO questions said their programs covered Mifeprex and Mifepristone Tablets, 200 mg for medical abortion, as of December 31, 2024. In contrast, officials from 13 programs told GAO their programs did not cover either drug for medical abortion. An official from the remaining program did not specify the medical indications for which its program covered the drugs. Medicaid Programs’ Coverage of Danco Laboratories’ Mifeprex and GenBioPro’s Mifepristone Tablets, 200 mg, as of December 31, 2024 Note: For more details, see fig. 1 in GAO-25-107911. State officials’ responses to GAO’s questions indicated that some states may not be complying with the MDRP requirements for covering Mifeprex and Mifepristone Tablets, 200 mg. However, CMS has not determined the extent to which states comply with the MDRP requirements for these drugs. CMS officials told GAO they were not aware of the following: Nine programs did not cover Mifeprex and Mifepristone Tablets, 200 mg for any medical indication, as of December 31, 2024; GAO reported four of these programs did not cover Mifeprex in 2019. Mifepristone Tablets, 200 mg was not available at the time of GAO’s 2019 report. Four additional Medicaid programs did not cover either drug when prescribed for medical abortion, as of December 31, 2024. CMS was not aware of these coverage gaps, in part, because it had not implemented GAO’s 2019 recommendation to take actions to ensure Medicaid programs comply with MDRP requirements to cover Mifeprex. CMS also has not taken actions related to the coverage of Mifepristone Tablets, 200 mg, as of August 2025. Without such actions, CMS lacks assurance that Medicaid programs comply with MDRP requirements and Medicaid beneficiaries may lack access to these drugs when appropriate. Why GAO Did This Study GAO was asked to describe Medicaid programs’ coverage of mifepristone. This report examines Medicaid programs’ coverage of Mifeprex and Mifepristone Tablets, 200 mg, among other things. GAO reviewed laws and CMS guidance on the MDRP, and coverage of Mifeprex and Mifepristone Tablets, 200 mg. GAO also sent written questions to officials from the 52 Medicaid programs that participate in the MDRP regarding their coverage of these drugs, and reviewed officials’ responses from the 49 programs that provided GAO information. Recommendations GAO reiterates its 2019 recommendation that CMS take actions to ensure states’ compliance with MDRP requirements to cover Mifeprex. GAO also recommends that CMS determine the extent to which states comply with federal Medicaid requirements regarding coverage of GenBioPro’s Mifepristone Tablets, 200 mg, and take actions, as appropriate, to ensure compliance. In response to the recommendation, HHS noted it is reviewing applicable law and will determine the best course of action to address it moving forward. Recommendations for Executive Action Agency Affected Recommendation Status Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services The Administrator of CMS should determine the extent to which states comply with federal Medicaid requirements regarding coverage of GenBioPro's Mifepristone Tablets, 200 mg, and take actions, as appropriate, to ensure compliance. (Recommendation 1) Open Actions to satisfy the intent of the recommendation have not been taken or are being planned. When we confirm what actions the agency has taken in response to this recommendation, we will provide updated information. Full Report Full Report (11 pages)

05.12.2025 – The European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change, established under the European Climate Law, will continue to be supported in its second term (2026-2030) by Ottmar Edenhofer. The Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) has now been appointed by the Management Board of the European Environment Agency in Copenhagen for another four-year term on the Advisory Board, beginning on 24 March 2026. Advising EU policymakers on the path to the declared goal of climate neutrality: PIK Director Ottmar Edenhofer. Photo: PIK/Karkow The Advisory Board gives independent advice and produces reports on EU policies, and their coherence with the Climate Law and the EU’s commitments under the Paris Agreement. It consists of 15 high-level scientific experts covering a wide range of relevant fields. Edenhofer is serving as the Advisory Board’s current Chair during its first term (2022-2026). Highlights during this period have included scientific recommendations for an ambitious EU climate target for 2040, an analysis of the action needed to achieve climate neutrality, and a study on scaling up atmospheric carbon removals. “I am very thankful for the great opportunity to continue supporting EU climate policy in this service role for the next four years,” says Edenhofer, who is also Professor for The Economics and Politics of Climate Change at the Technische Universität Berlin. “The European Union has taken some important steps in recent years towards its declared goal of climate neutrality by 2050. It remains important to make climate policy cost-effective, socially balanced and consistent with the requirements of an internationally competitive economy. As a member of the Advisory Board, I will do my best to provide scientific advice to policymakers on this task.” The composition of the Advisory Board for the next four-year term has now been decided through an open, fair and transparent selection process lasting several months. The decision on who will chair the body in future is not expected until beginning of the second term. The other members of the Advisory Board in the second term are: • Annela Anger-Kraavi – University of Cambridge • Constantinos Cartalis – National and Kapodistrian University of Athens • Suraje Dessai – University of Leeds’ School of Earth, Environment, and Sustainability • Laura Díaz Anadón – University of Cambridge • Vera Eory – Scotland’s Rural College • Lena Kitzing - Technical University of Denmark • Kati Kulovesi – University of Eastern Finland • Lars J. Nilsson – Lund University • Åsa Persson – KTH Royal Institute of Technology’s Climate Action Centre • Keywan Riahi – International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis • Jean-François Soussana – French National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and the Environment • Giorgio Vacchiano – University of Milan • Detlef van Vuuren – PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency • Zinta Zommers – University of Toronto

Abstract The instability of soil slope boulders represents a prevalent geological hazard, characterized by its sudden onset and significant threats to engineering safety. However, the burial depth of boulders, a critical parameter for stability assessment, poses challenges for direct measurement. To facilitate rapid and accurate stability evaluations, this study introduces a method for assessing soil slope boulder stability based on natural vibration frequency. By simplifying the interaction between the boulder and the surrounding soil into a multi-degree-of-freedom spring-mass vibration model, we derive a dynamic characteristic model for the boulder. This model integrates the Limit Equilibrium Method with the dynamic framework to establish a stability evaluation model predicated on natural vibration frequency. The study identifies two primary failure modes for boulders: shear-sliding and rotational-toppling types. Utilizing the proposed model, we elucidate the quantitative relationships among natural vibration frequency, boulder burial depth, and boulder mass. Experimental investigations with boulder models of varying sizes demonstrate a nonlinear relationship between natural vibration frequency and both burial depth and mass. By combining the model with the Limit Equilibrium Method, we derive a formula for calculating the safety factor, which is validated through engineering case studies. The findings reveal that the calculated safety factor agrees well with numerical simulation results, thereby confirming the model’s applicability in practical engineering contexts. This study establishes a robust theoretical framework for monitoring and preventing geological disasters associated with the instability of boulders on soil slopes. Data availability The datasets used during the current study available from the corresponding author on reasonable request. References Jorge, M. & D., B. J. & Performance-based seismic assessment of slope systems. Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng. 168 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.Soildyn.2023.107835 (2023). Nengpan, J. et al. Landslide early warning, case studies from Southwest China. Eng. Geol. 279, 105917. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2020.105917 (2020). Google Scholar Wang, J., Kang, Y. & Feng, B. Disaster resilience in the geohazard-prone mountainous areas: Evidence from the Hengduan Mountain, Southwest China. Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 119, 105331–105331. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.Ijdrr.2025.105331 (2025). Google Scholar Li, X. et al. Evaluation of rock mass quality and its mechanical properties through digital drilling process monitoring. J. Rock Mech. Geotech. Eng. 17, 4490–4511. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.Jrmge.2025.01.024 (2025). Google Scholar Yang, H., Xing, B., He, J., Jiang, H. & Cheng, Q. The formation mechanism and failure mode of a talus slope induced by rockfalls in Nayong County, Southwest China. Front. Earth Sci. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.973528 (2022). Google Scholar Wenqiang, C., Yongai, S. & Kaihe, S. Dynamic evaluation on slope ecological restoration effect based on cosine similarity and Markov chain. Sci. Rep. 13, 13533–13533. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-40770-w (2023). Google Scholar Leng, X. et al. Deformation and failure evolution mechanism of Valley slope induced by dominant crack propagation: insights from transparent soil modelling. Eng. Geol. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2025.108019 (2025). Google Scholar Xiang, Y., Tao, Z., Bin, G. & Chun’an, T. Failure mechanism of boulder-embedded slope under excavation disturbance and rainfall. Bull. Eng. Geol. Environ. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-023-03369-z (2023). Google Scholar Shi, C., Qiao, T., Xue, D., Wu, S. & Zhang, C. Dynamic responses and stability analysis of a large-scale slope deposit under non-uniform seismic input. Geoenviron. Disasters 12, 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40677-025-00322-y (2025). Google Scholar Ren, S., Zhang, P., Man, T. & Galindo-Torres, S. A. Numerical assessments of the influences of Soil–boulder mixed flow impact on downstream facilities. Comput. Geotech. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compgeo.2022.105055 (2023). Google Scholar Yu, C. et al. Successive boulder impacts on the Soil-Embedded baffle: An experimental study. Can. Geotech. J. https://doi.org/10.1139/cgj-2024-0787 (2025). Google Scholar Rasmussen, M. et al. Evolving physical and mechanical rock properties during exposure at earth’s surface. Geomorphology https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2025.109943 (2025). Google Scholar Azarafza, M. et al. Discontinuous rock slope stability analysis by limit equilibrium approaches—a review. Int. J. Digit. Earth https://doi.org/10.1080/17538947.2021.1988163 (2021). Google Scholar Marchelli, M., Guccione, D. E., Giacomini, A. & Buzzi, O. Fragmentation patterns and trajectories during rockfall: Analysis of the influence of discontinuities and impact conditions through drop tests. Rock Mech. Rock Eng. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00603-025-04937-3 (2025). Google Scholar Du, J., Feng, X., Chai, B., Yin, K. & Zheng, L. Physically based deterministic rockfall hazard assessment integrating Multi-Failure modes at large scale: A case study of Tiefeng Township, Chongqing, China. J. Rock Mech. Geotech. Eng. 17, 6324–6343. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrmge.2024.12.023 (2025). Google Scholar Ercanoglu, M. Insights and perspectives into the limit equilibrium method from 2D and 3D analyses. Eng. Geol. 281, 105968–105968. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2020.105968 (2020). Google Scholar Stead, D. & Wolter, A. A. Critical review of rock slope failure mechanisms: The importance of structural geology. J. Struct. Geol. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsg.2015.02.002 (2015). Google Scholar Yang, F. et al. Numerical simulation method for the process of rockburst. Eng. Geol. 306 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2022.106760 Zhao, M., Ding, Q., Cao, S., Li, Z. & Du, X. Large-scale seismic Soil–structure interaction analysis via efficient finite element modeling and Multi‐GPU parallel explicit algorithm. Comput. Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng. https://doi.org/10.1111/mice.13163 (2024). Google Scholar Haykin, S. Neural Networks: A Comprehensive Foundation 3rd edn (1998). Deng, J. L. Introduction grey system theory. J. Grey Syst. 1, 191–243 (1989). Google Scholar Xi-ping, H., Xi-sheng, H. & Xiu-feng, H. Weighted Multi-Point grey model and its application to high rock slope deformation forecast. Rock. Soil. Mech. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-7598.2007.06.023 (2007). Google Scholar Xu, H. et al. Railway slope monitoring based on Dual-Parameter FBG sensor. Photonic Sens. 15, 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13320-024-0718-0 (2024). Google Scholar Meng, B. et al. Vibration responses and stability assessment of anchored extremely fractured rock mass based on modal analysis. Int. J. Non-Linear Mech. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijnonlinmec.2024.104957 (2025). Google Scholar Zhou, F. et al. Analysis of the frequency–response stability and reliability of a tower-column unstable rock mass on a high and steep slope. Sci. Rep. (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-70941-2 Du, S. & Wang, D. G. N. S. S. Techniques for Real-Time monitoring of landslides: A review. Satell. Navig. 4, 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1186/s43020-023-00095-5 (2023). Google Scholar Wu, J. et al. Application of distributed fiber optic sensing technique in land subsidence monitoring. J. Civ. Struct. Health Monit. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13349-015-0133-8 (2015). Google Scholar Schenato, L. A. Review of distributed fibre optic sensors for geo-hydrological applications. Appl. Sci. Basel https://doi.org/10.3390/app7090896 (2017). Google Scholar Ye, X. et al. Subsurface multi-physical monitoring of a reservoir landslide with the fiber‐optic nerve system. Geophys. Res. Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl098211 (2022). Google Scholar Zhang, L., Zhu, H., Han, H. & Shi, B. Fiber optic monitoring of an anti-slide pile in a retrogressive landslide. J. Rock Mech. Geotech. Eng. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrmge.2023.02.011 (2024). Google Scholar Rothberg, S. J. et al. An international review of laser doppler vibrometry: Making light work of vibration measurement. Opt. Lasers Eng. 99, 11–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.optlaseng.2016.10.023 (2016). Google Scholar Gili, J. A., Corominas, J. & Rius, J. Using global positioning system techniques in landslide monitoring. Eng. Geol. 55, 167–192. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0013-7952(99)00127-1 (2000). Google Scholar Yan-Chang, J., Mo-Wen, X., Sheng-Xiang, C., Fu-Xia, L. A. Model for evaluation of stability of sliding- and falling-type dangerous rock blocks based on natural vibration frequency. Rock. Soil. Mech. 38, 2149–2156 https://doi.org/10.16285/j.rsm.2017.07.039 (2017). Ma, G., Sawada, K., Saito, H., Uehan, F. & Yashima, A. Study on evaluating rock block stability by using a remotely positioned laser doppler vibrometer. Int. J. GEOMATE. https://doi.org/10.21660/2012.4.3j (2012). Google Scholar Yan, D. et al. Safety monitoring experiment of unstable rock based on natural vibration frequency. Rock. Soil. Mech. 37, 3035–3040. https://doi.org/10.16285/j.rsm.2016.10.039 (2016). Google Scholar Yao, G. et al. Study on simulation test method for vibration characteristics of unstable rock. Railw. Eng. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1003-1995.2015.12.24 (2015). Google Scholar Jia, Y., Jiang, T., Yin, Y., Yu, G. & Wang, L. Experimental research on damage identification of topping dangerous rock structural surface based on dynamic characteristic parameters. Front. Earth Sci. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.942025 (2022). Google Scholar Xie, M., Liu, W., Du, Y., Li, Q. & Wang, H. The evaluation method of rock mass stability based on natural frequency. Adv. Civ. Eng. 2021 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6652960 Jia, Y. et al. Buried depth calculation of the slope of the unstable rock based on natural vibration frequency. Front. Earth Sci. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.929825 (2022). Google Scholar Jia, B., Wu, Z. & Du, Y. Real-time stability assessment of unstable rocks based on fundamental natural frequency. Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. 124, 104134–104134. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijrmms.2019.104134 (2019). Google Scholar Jia, Y. et al. Research on stability evaluation of perilous rock on soil slope based on natural vibration frequency. Appl. Sci. Basel. https://doi.org/10.3390/app13042406 (2023). Google Scholar Bai, M., Cui, Z. & Mou, K. Early detection and stability assessment of hazardous rock masses in steep slopes. Appl. Sci. Basel. 14, 6317–6317. https://doi.org/10.3390/app14146317 (2024). Google Scholar Nazari, M., Alivand, S. & Alizadeh, F. Utilizing the geological strength index (GSI) for rock mass strength assessment in slopes: A case study. (2025). Moharami, A. & Azadi, M. Rock slope stability analysis based on new Qslope ‎method for Semirom region in Iran. Civ. Geoeng. Lett. 1, e100021 (2024). Google Scholar A., N. Y. et al. Comparative analysis for slope stability by using machine learning methods. Appl. Sci. 13, 1555–1555 (2023). https://doi.org/10.3390/app13031555 Mao, Y., Chen, L., Nanehkaran, Y. A., Azarafza, M. & Derakhshani, R. Fuzzy-Based intelligent model for rapid rock slope stability analysis using Qslope. Water https://doi.org/10.3390/w15162949 (2023). Google Scholar Download references Author information Authors and Affiliations School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, 450046, China Yanchang Jia, Yahui Liang, Guihao Song, Shuyan Hua, Zhihao Chen, Wenlong Ma & Tianbao Niu Zhong’an Guotai (Beijing) Technology Development Co., Ltd., Beijing, 100012, China Guihao Song Yellow River Survey, Planning, Design and Research Institute, Zhengzhou, 450003, China Hongfei Wang School of Resources and Safety Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing, 100083, China Mowen Xie Authors Yanchang Jia View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar Yahui Liang View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar Guihao Song View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar Hongfei Wang View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar Mowen Xie View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar Shuyan Hua View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar Zhihao Chen View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar Wenlong Ma View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar Tianbao Niu View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar Contributions All authors have made significant contributions to the research. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by Yahui Liang, Guihao Song, Shuyan Hua, Zhihao Chen, Wenlong Ma and Tianbao Niu. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Yahui Liang. The manuscript was reviewed by Yanchang Jia, Hongfei Wang, and Mowen Xie. Funding acquisition was provided by Yanchang Jia. All authors read and approved the final version of the manuscript. Corresponding author Correspondence to Yahui Liang. Ethics declarations Competing interests The authors declare no competing interests. Additional information Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Rights and permissions Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if you modified the licensed material. You do not have permission under this licence to share adapted material derived from this article or parts of it. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/. Reprints and permissions About this article Cite this article Jia, Y., Liang, Y., Song, G. et al. Study on rapid identification of soil slope boulders based on natural vibration frequency. Sci Rep (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-33924-5 Download citation Received: 21 November 2025 Accepted: 23 December 2025 Published: 29 December 2025 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-33924-5 Share this article Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:Get shareable link Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article. Copy shareable link to clipboard Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative Keywords Soil slope boulder Vibration frequency Stability evaluation Boulder burial depth Dynamic indicators Subjects Engineering Environmental sciences Natural hazards Solid Earth sciences

Abstract Streamflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin, USA has decreased proportionally more than precipitation in the recent multi-decadal drought. The causes are debated. Understanding how precipitation, and seasonal temperature, vegetation, and evapotranspiration dynamics affect streamflow is essential. Here we use causal inference with historical data to identify surface runoff efficiency drivers. Runoff efficiency increases in years with higher precipitation and snow accumulation accompanied by cooler spring temperatures and delayed vegetation phenology, which generally attenuates biomass accumulation. Conversely, runoff efficiency decreases in years with lower precipitation and snow accumulation, or warmer springs, when vegetation activity and productivity are accelerated or amplified. Summer temperature, often identified as a driver of higher evaporation and aridity, does not emerge as statistically significant. Years with extreme phases of winter-spring precipitation have distinct atmospheric circulation patterns and associated sea surface temperatures, indicating the influence of larger-scale climate drivers on the Basin’s precipitation and runoff efficiency dynamics. Data availability All processed hydroclimatic datasets supporting the analyses in this study are available at Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17843029)79. These processed files were derived from publicly accessible datasets obtained from the sources referenced throughout the manuscript. Code availability All analyses were conducted using exiting R packages referenced throughout the manuscript. References Mote, P. W., Li, S., Lettenmaier, D. P., Xiao, M. & Engel, R. Dramatic declines in snowpack in the western US. npj Clim. Atmos. Sci. 1, 2 (2018). Google Scholar Knowles, N., Dettinger, M. D. & Cayan, D. R. Trends in snowfall versus rainfall in the western United States. J. Clim. 19, 4545–4559 (2006). Google Scholar Cook, B. I. et al. Twenty-first century drought projections in the CMIP6 forcing scenarios. Earth’s. Future 8, e2019EF001461 (2020). Google Scholar White, D. D. et al. Chapter 28: Southwest. Fifth National Climate Assessment. https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/28 (2023). Hoerling, M. et al. Causes for the century-long decline in colorado river flow. J. Clim. 32, 8181–8203 (2019). Google Scholar Seager, R. et al. Ocean-forcing of cool season precipitation drives ongoing and future decadal drought in southwestern North America. npj Clim. Atmos. Sci. 6, 141 (2023). Google Scholar Schmidt, J. C., Yackulic, C. B. & Kuhn, E. The Colorado River water crisis: its origin and the future. WIREs Water 10, e1672 (2023). Google Scholar Gangopadhyay, S., Woodhouse, C. A., McCabe, G. J., Routson, C. C. & Meko, D. M. Tree rings reveal unmatched 2nd century drought in the Colorado River Basin. Geophys. Res. Lett. 49, e2022GL098781 (2022). Google Scholar Wheeler, K. G. et al. What will it take to stabilize the Colorado River?. Science 377, 373–375 (2022). Google Scholar Overpeck, J. T. & Udall, B. Climate change and the aridification of North America. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 117, 11856–11858 (2020). Google Scholar Tillman, F., Gangopadhyay, S. & Pruitt, T. Scientific Investigations Report. 24 https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20205107 (2020). Lukas, J. & Harding, B. Current Understanding of Colorado River Basin Climate and Hydrology.” Chap. 2 in Colorado River Basin Climate and Hydrology: State of the Science. in Western Water Assessment (eds Lukas, J. & Payton, E.) 42–81 (University of Colorado Boulder, 2020). McCabe, G. J. & Wolock, D. M. Warming may create substantial water supply shortages in the Colorado River basin. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, 2007GL031764 (2007). Google Scholar U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement for Near-Term Colorado River Operations. 478 https://www.usbr.gov/ColoradoRiverBasin/documents/NearTermColoradoRiverOperations/20240300-Near-termColoradoRiverOperations-FinalSEIS-508.pdf (2024). Whitney, K. M. et al. Spatial attribution of declining Colorado River streamflow under future warming. J. Hydrol. 617, 129125 (2023). Google Scholar Wang, Z., Vivoni, E. R., Whitney, K. M., Xiao, M. & Mascaro, G. On the sensitivity of future hydrology in the Colorado River to the selection of the precipitation partitioning method. Water Resour. Res. 60, e2023WR035801 (2024). Google Scholar Xiao, M., Udall, B. & Lettenmaier, D. P. On the causes of declining Colorado river streamflows. Water Resour. Res. 54, 6739–6756 (2018). Google Scholar Udall, B. & Overpeck, J. The twenty-first century Colorado River hot drought and implications for the future. Water Resour. Res. 53, 2404–2418 (2017). Google Scholar Nowak, K., Hoerling, M., Rajagopalan, B. & Zagona, E. Colorado river basin hydroclimatic variability. J. Clim. 25, 4389–4403 (2012). Google Scholar Woodhouse, C. A., Pederson, G. T., Morino, K., McAfee, S. A. & McCabe, G. J. Increasing influence of air temperature on upper Colorado River streamflow. Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 2174–2181 (2016). Google Scholar Woodhouse, C. A. & Pederson, G. T. Investigating runoff efficiency in upper colorado river streamflow over past centuries. Water Resour. Res. 54, 286–300 (2018). Google Scholar Hamlet, A. F., Mote, P. W., Clark, M. P. & Lettenmaier, D. P. Effects of temperature and precipitation variability on snowpack trends in the western United States*. J. Clim. 18, 4545–4561 (2005). Google Scholar McCabe, G. J., Wolock, D. M., Pederson, G. T., Woodhouse, C. A. & McAfee, S. Evidence that recent warming is reducing upper colorado river flows. Earth Interact. 21, 1–14 (2017). Google Scholar Bass, B., Goldenson, N., Rahimi, S. & Hall, A. Aridification of Colorado river basin’s snowpack regions has driven water losses despite ameliorating effects of vegetation. Water Resour. Res. 59, e2022WR033454 (2023). Google Scholar U.S. Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service. Upper Colorado Region precipitation basin plots. https://nwcc-apps.sc.egov.usda.gov/awdb/basin-plots/POR/PREC/assocHUC2/14_Upper_Colorado_Region.html (accessed 22 September 2024). U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. Draft Annual Operating Plan for Colorado River Reservoirs 2022. https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/aop/AOP22.pdf (2021). U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. Draft Annual Operating Plan for Colorado River Reservoirs 2023. https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/aop/AOP22.pdf (2022). U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. Draft Annual Operating Plan for Colorado River Reservoirs 2024. https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/AOP2024/AOP24_draft.pdf (2024). McCabe, G. J., Wolock, D. M. & Valentin, M. Warming is driving decreases in snow fractions while runoff efficiency remains mostly unchanged in snow-covered areas of the western United States. J. Hydrometeorol. 19, 803–814 (2018). Google Scholar Milly, P. C. D. & Dunne, K. A. Colorado River flow dwindles as warming-driven loss of reflective snow energizes evaporation. Science 367, 1252–1255 (2020). Google Scholar Hogan, D. & Lundquist, J. D. Recent Upper Colorado river streamflow declines driven by loss of spring precipitation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 51, e2024GL109826 (2024). Google Scholar Rumsey, C. A., Miller, M. P., Susong, D. D., Tillman, F. D. & Anning, D. W. Regional scale estimates of baseflow and factors influencing baseflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin. J. Hydrol. Regional Stud. 4, 91–107 (2015). Google Scholar Li, D., Wrzesien, M. L., Durand, M., Adam, J. & Lettenmaier, D. P. How much runoff originates as snow in the western United States, and how will that change in the future?. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 6163–6172 (2017). Google Scholar Miller, M. P., Buto, S. G., Susong, D. D. & Rumsey, C. A. The importance of base flow in sustaining surface water flow in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Water Resour. Res. 52, 3547–3562 (2016). Google Scholar Marvel, K. et al. Chapter 2: Climate Trends. Fifth National Climate Assessment. https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/2 (2023). Bolinger, R., Lukas, J., Schumacher, R. & Gpble, P. Climate Change in Colorado. https://mountainscholar.org/items/99896af1-0564-4531-9628-be1e13dbc4cd (2023). Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC). Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, 2023). Zhao, S. & Zhang, J. Causal effect of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature on the Upper Colorado River Basin spring precipitation. Clim. Dyn. 58, 941–959 (2022). Google Scholar Tillman, F. D. et al. A review of current capabilities and science gaps in water supply data, modeling, and trends for water availability assessments in the upper Colorado river basin. Water 14, 3813 (2022). Google Scholar Christensen, N. S. & Lettenmaier, D. P. A multimodel ensemble approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River Basin. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 11, 1417–1434 (2007). Google Scholar Barnett, T. P. et al. Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States. Science 319, 1080–1083 (2008). Google Scholar Pierce, D. W. et al. Attribution of declining western U.S. snowpack to human effects. J. Clim. 21, 6425–6444 (2008). Google Scholar U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. West-Wide Climate Risk Assessments: Bias-Corrected and Spatially Downscaled Surface Water Projections. 122 https://usbr.gov/climate/secure/docs/2011secure/west-wide-climate-risk-assessments.pdf (2011). U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study: Study Report. https://usbr.gov/lc/region/programs/crbstudy/finalreport/Study%20Report/StudyReport_FINAL_Dec2012.pdf. (2012). U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. Water Reliability in the West − 2021 SECURE Water Act Report. 60 https://www.usbr.gov/climate/secure/2021secure.html (2021). Colorado River Basin Climate and Hydrology: State of the Science (University of Colorado Boulder, 2020). Currier, W. R. et al. Vegetation representation influences projected streamflow changes in the Colorado river basin. J. Hydrometeorol. 24, 1291–1310 (2023). Google Scholar Pearl, J. From Bayesian Networks to Causal Networks. in Mathematical Models for Handling Partial Knowledge in Artificial Intelligence (eds Coletti, G., Dubois, D. & Scozzafava, R.) 157–182 (Springer US, Boston, MA, 1995). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-1424-8_9. Neapolitan, R. E. Learning bayesian networks: Pearson Prentice Hall Upper Saddle River. NJ, 674 (2004). Ebert-Uphoff, I. & Deng, Y. Causal discovery for climate research using graphical models. J. Clim. 25, 5648–5665 (2012). Google Scholar Ragno, E., Hrachowitz, M. & Morales-Nápoles, O. Applying non-parametric Bayesian networks to estimate maximum daily river discharge: potential and challenges. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 26, 1695–1711 (2022). Google Scholar Madadgar, S. & Moradkhani, H. Spatio-temporal drought forecasting within Bayesian networks. J. Hydrol. 512, 134–146 (2014). Google Scholar Das, P. & Chanda, K. A Bayesian network approach for understanding the role of large-scale and local hydro-meteorological variables as drivers of basin-scale rainfall and streamflow. Stoch. Environ. Res Risk Assess. 37, 1535–1556 (2023). Google Scholar Zaerpour, M. et al. Climate shapes baseflows, influencing drought severity. Environ. Res. Lett. 20, 014035 (2025). Google Scholar Zaerpour, M. et al. Agriculture’s impact on water–energy balance varies across climates. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 122, e2410521122 (2025). Google Scholar Zaerpour, M. et al. Impacts of agriculture and snow dynamics on catchment water balance in the U.S. and Great Britain. Commun. Earth Environ. 5, 733 (2024). Google Scholar Runge, J. et al. Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences. Nat. Commun. 10, 2553 (2019). Google Scholar Runge, J. Discovering contemporaneous and lagged causal relations in autocorrelated nonlinear time series datasets. Proc. 36th Conf. Uncertain. Artif. Intell. (UAI), PMLR 124, 1388–1397 (2020). 124:1388-1397, 2020. Google Scholar Liang, H. et al. Inferring causal associations in hydrological systems: a comparison of methods. Stoch. Environ. Res Risk Assess. 39, 2427–2448 (2025). Google Scholar Crous, K. Y. Plant responses to climate warming: physiological adjustments and implications for plant functioning in a future, warmer world. Am. J. Bot. 106, 1049–1051 (2019). Google Scholar Piao, S. et al. Plant phenology and global climate change: current progresses and challenges. Glob. Change Biol. 25, 1922–1940 (2019). Google Scholar Zhang, Y. & Hepner, G. F. Short-term phenological predictions of vegetation abundance using multivariate adaptive regression splines in the upper colorado river basin. Earth Interact. 21, 1–26 (2017). Google Scholar Körner, C. Significance of Temperature in Plant Life. in Plant Growth and Climate Change (eds Morison, J. I. L. & Morecroft, M. D.) 48–69 (Wiley, 2006). Yildiz, O. & Barros, A. P. Elucidating vegetation controls on the hydroclimatology of a mid-latitude basin. J. Hydrol. 333, 431–448 (2007). Google Scholar R Core Team. R A language and environment for statistical computing, R Foundation for Statistical. Computing R Foundation for Statistical Computing (2023). Scutari, M. Learning Bayesian Networks with the bnlearn R Package. J. Stat. Soft. 35, 1–22 (2010). Hotelling, H. New Light on the Correlation Coefficient and its Transforms. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B Stat. Methodol. 15, 193–225 (1953). Google Scholar Helsel, D., Hirsch, R., Ryberg, K., Archfield, S. A. & Gilroy, E. J. Statistical Methods in Water Resources. https://doi.org/10.3133/tm4a3 (2020). Gouhier, T., Grinstead, A. & Simko, V. R package biwavelet: Conduct univariate and bivariate wavelet analyses (version 0.20.21). (2021). U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. Current natural flow data 1906–‍2020, Updated 15 December 2022. https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/NaturalFlow/current.html (accessed 18 September 2023). Prairie, J. R. & Callejo, R. D. Natural Flow and Salt Computation Methods, Calendar Years 1971–1995. 112 https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/NaturalFlow/Final-MethodsCmptgNatFlow.pdf (2005). Vose, R. et al. NOAA Monthly U.S. Climate Gridded Dataset (NClimGrid). NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information https://doi.org/10.7289/V5SX6B56 (2015). Durre, I. et al. NOAA nClimGrid-Daily Version 1 – Daily gridded temperature and precipitation for the Contiguous United States since 1951. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information https://doi.org/10.25921/C4GT-R169 (2022). Pinzon, J. E. et al. Vegetation Collection Global Vegetation Greenness (NDVI) from AVHRR GIMMS-3G + , 1981–‍2022. ORNL Distributed Active Archive Center https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/2187 (2023). Kalnay, E. et al. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 77, 437–472 (1996). Google Scholar National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Physical Sciences Laboratory. NOAA PSL Climate Composites Tool. https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl (accessed 22 June 2025 & 12 July 2025). Huang, B. et al. Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature, Version 5 (ERSSTv5): upgrades, validations, and intercomparisons. J. Clim. 30, 8179–8205 (2017). Google Scholar Broxton, P., Zeng, X. & Dawson, N. Daily 4 km Gridded SWE and Snow Depth from Assimilated In-Situ and Modeled Data over the Conterminous US, Version 1. NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center https://doi.org/10.5067/0GGPB220EX6A. Palumbo, D. Dataset supporting ‘Precipitation, moderated by spring temperature and vegetation, drives runoff efficiency in the Upper Colorado River Basin, USA’. Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17843029 (2025). Download references Acknowledgements This research was partially funded by the Bureau of Reclamation. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not reflect the views or endorsements by the Bureau of Reclamation. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. We thank reviewers Gregory Pederson and Olivier Champagne, the anonymous reviewer(s), and the editors for their constructive comments and suggestions, which improved the clarity and quality of this manuscript. Author information Authors and Affiliations Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA David Palumbo & Upmanu Lall Bureau of Reclamation, Washington, DC, USA David Palumbo Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO, USA Subhrendu Gangopadhyay Water Institute, Julie Ann Wrigley Global Futures Laboratory, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA Upmanu Lall Authors David Palumbo View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar Subhrendu Gangopadhyay View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar Upmanu Lall View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar Contributions David Palumbo conceived and refined the study hypothesis, designed and conducted the research, performed the analyses, and prepared the manuscript. Subhrendu Gangopadhyay refined the study hypothesis, designed and conducted the research, performed the analyses, and prepared the manuscript. Upmanu Lall refined the study hypothesis, designed and conducted the research, performed the analyses, and prepared the manuscript. Corresponding author Correspondence to David Palumbo. Ethics declarations Competing interests The authors declare no competing interests. Peer review Peer review information Communications Earth and Environment thanks Gregory Pederson, Olivier Champagne and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work. Primary Handling Editors: Rahim Barzegar, Somaparna Ghosh, and Aliénor Lavergne [A peer review file is available]. Additional information Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Supplementary information Transparent Peer Review file Supplementary Information Rights and permissions Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. Reprints and permissions About this article Cite this article Palumbo, D., Gangopadhyay, S. & Lall, U. Precipitation, moderated by spring temperature and vegetation, drives runoff efficiency in the Upper Colorado River Basin, USA. Commun Earth Environ (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-03136-w Download citation Received: 11 February 2025 Accepted: 12 December 2025 Published: 29 December 2025 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-03136-w Share this article Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:Get shareable link Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article. Copy shareable link to clipboard Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative Subjects Atmospheric dynamics Climate sciences Hydrology

Abstract Large cetaceans face several anthropogenic threats. Among these, collisions are a major cause of anthropogenic mortality. Assessing and limiting their impact on populations is essential, as these species play an essential ecological role. All types of vessels, including offshore racing vessels, can collide with cetaceans. When a collision occurs between an offshore racing vessel and a large cetacean, the consequences are severe for both the whale, which is often injured or even killed and the vessel, which can suffer severe damage and be forced to withdraw from the race. Our study aimed to develop an encounter model that takes the characteristics of both cetaceans and racing vessels into account to estimate the number of encounters along vessel routes. The model was applied to three different routes commonly used in offshore racing: the first between Newport, USA and Skagen, Denmark; the second between Dover, England and the Gibraltar Strait; and the third between the Gibraltar Strait and Genoa, Italy. The number of encounters was estimated to be 1.7 for Route 1, 4.1 for Route 2 and 2.6 for Route 3. The model was also used to estimate the impact of routing vessels away from any exclusion zones that may be established in areas of high cetacean abundance. This routing could significantly reduce the number of encounters and offer potential solutions to reduce collisions between cetaceans and all types of vessels. The issue of collisions is becoming increasingly important and requires the development of methods to reduce the number of collisions worldwide. Data availability Vessel tracks were simulated using the qtVlm navigation software (©Meltemus 2017 - 2024, https://www.meltemus.com/), which is an open-access software, but the polars used were provided by Bañulsdesign and are confidential. Cetacean densities in the western Atlantic Ocean are publicly available at https://seamap.env.duke.edu/models/Duke/EC/. Cetacean densities near Iceland are not publicly available and should be requested from the North Atlantic Marine Mammal Commission (NAMMCO). Cetacean densities in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean are not publicly available and should be requested from the Direction Générale de l’Armement Techniques Navales. The corresponding author can provide contact details. References Blair, H. B., Merchant, N. D., Friedlaender, A. S., Wiley, D. N. & Parks, S. E. Evidence for ship noise impacts on humpback whale foraging behaviour. Biol. Lett. 12, 20160005. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2016.0005 (2016). Google Scholar Unger, B. et al. Large amounts of marine debris found in sperm whales stranded along the North Sea coast in early 2016. Mar. Pollut. Bull. 112, 134–141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2016.08.027 (2016). Google Scholar Moore, M. J. How we can all stop killing whales: a proposal to avoid whale entanglement in fishing gear. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 76, 781–786. https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsy194 (2019). Google Scholar Conn, P. B. & Silber, G. K. Vessel speed restrictions reduce risk of collision-related mortality for North Atlantic right whales. Ecosphere 4, art43, https://doi.org/10.1890/ES13-00004.1 (2013). Rockwood, R. C., Calambokidis, J. & Jahncke, J. High mortality of blue, humpback and fin whales from modeling of vessel collisions on the U.S. west coast suggests population impacts and insufficient protection. PloS one 12, e0183052. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0183052 (2017). Google Scholar Sèbe, M. et al. Estimating the impact of ship strikes on the Mediterranean fin whale subpopulation. Ocean Coast. Manag. 237, 106485. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2023.106485 (2023). Google Scholar Read, A. J., Drinker, P. & Northridge, S. Bycatch of marine mammals in U.S. and global fisheries. Conserv. Biol. 20, 163–169, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2006.00338.x (2006). Tulloch, V. et al. Long-term trends and a risk analysis of cetacean entanglements and bycatch in fisheries gear in Australian waters. Biodivers. Conserv. 29, 251–282. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-019-01881-x (2020). Google Scholar Pirotta, V., Grech, A., Jonsen, I. D., Laurance, W. F. & Harcourt, R. G. Consequences of global shipping traffic for marine giants. Front. Ecol. Environ. 17, 39–47. https://doi.org/10.1002/fee.1987 (2019). Google Scholar Doughty, C. E. et al. Global nutrient transport in a world of giants. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 113, 868–873. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1502549112 (2016). Google Scholar Wiggins, S. M., Thayre, B. J., Trickey, J. S., Baumann-Pickering, S. & Hildebrand, J. A. Beaked whale passive acoustic tracking offshore of Cape Hatteras 2017. Tech. Rep., Marine Physical Laboratory, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, MPL Technical Memorandum 631 October 2018. Submitted to Naval Facilities Engineering Command (NAVFAC) Atlantic, Norfolk, Virginia, under Contract No. N62470-15-D-8006 Subcontract 383-8476 (MSA2015-1176 Task Order 003) issued to HDR, Inc. (2018). Baumgartner, M. F., Wenzel, F. W., Lysiak, N. S. & Patrician, M. R. North Atlantic right whale foraging ecology and its role in human-caused mortality. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 581, 165–181. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps12315 (2017). Google Scholar Calambokidis, J. et al. Differential vulnerability to ship strikes between day and night for blue, fin, and humpback whales based on dive and movement data from medium duration archival tags. Front. Mar. Sci. 6, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00543 (2019). Keen, E. M. et al. Night and day: Diel differences in ship strike risk for fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) in the California current system. Front. Mar. Sci. 6, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00730 (2019). Smith, J. N. et al. Quantifying ship strike risk to breeding whales in a multiple-use marine park: the Great Barrier Reef. Front. Mar. Sci. 7, 67. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00067 (2020). Google Scholar Ritter, F. & Panigada, S. Chapter 28 - Collisions of vessels with cetaceans – The underestimated threat. In Sheppard, C. (ed.) World Seas: An Environmental Evaluation (Second Edition), 531–547, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-805052-1.00026-7 (Academic Press, 2019), second edition edn. Laist, D. W., Knowlton, A. R., Mead, J. G., Collet, A. S. & Podesta, M. Collisions between ships and whales. Mar. Mammal Sci. 17, 35–75. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1748-7692.2001.tb00980.x (2001). Google Scholar Vanderlaan, A. S. M. & Taggart, C. T. Vessel collisions with whales: the probability of injury based on vessel speed. Mar. Mammal Sci. 23, 144–156. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1748-7692.2006.00098.x (2007). Google Scholar Garrison, L. P. et al. The effects of vessel speed and size on the lethality of strikes of large whales in us waters. Front. Mar. Sci. 11, 1467387. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2024.1467387 (2025). Google Scholar Peltier, H. et al. Monitoring of marine mammal strandings along French coasts reveals the importance of ship strikes on large cetaceans: A challenge for the European marine strategy framework directive. Front. Mar. Sci. 6, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00486 (2019). Winkler, C., Panigada, S., Murphy, S. & Ritter, F. Global numbers of ship strikes: An assessment of collisions between vessels and cetaceans using available data in the IWC ship strike database. IWC B (2020). Ritter, F. Collisions of sailing vessels with cetaceans worldwide: First insights into a seemingly growing problem. J. Cetacean Res. Manage. 12, 119–127, https://doi.org/10.47536/jcrm.v12i1.598 (2012). Schoeman, R. P., Patterson-Abrolat, C. & Plön, S. A global review of vessel collisions with marine animals. Front. Mar. Sci. 7, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00292 (2020). Martin, J. et al. A quantitative framework for investigating risk of deadly collisions between marine wildlife and boats. Methods Ecol. Evol. 7, 42–50. https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.12447 (2015). Google Scholar Nowacek, D. P., Johnson, M. P. & Tyack, P. L. North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis) ignore ships but respond to alerting stimuli. Proc. Royal Soc. London. Ser. B: Biol. Sci. 271, 227–231, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2003.2570 (2004). Allen, J. K., Peterson, M. L., Sharrard, G. V., Wright, D. L. & Todd, S. K. Radiated noise from commercial ships in the Gulf of Maine: Implications for whale/vessel collisions. J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 132, EL229–35, https://doi.org/10.1121/1.4739251 (2012). McKenna, M., Calambokidis, J., Oleson, E., Laist, D. & Goldbogen, J. Simultaneous tracking of blue whales and large ships demonstrates limited behavioral responses for avoiding collision. Endangered Species Res. 27, 219–232. https://doi.org/10.3354/esr00666 (2015). Google Scholar Argüelles, M. B., Coscarella, M., Fiorito, C. & Bertellotti, M. Southern right whales generally appear not to react to transiting research vessels. Mar. Mammal Sci. 38, 6–17. https://doi.org/10.1111/mms.12843 (2022). Google Scholar Martin, M. J. et al. Exposure and behavioural responses of tagged bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) to vessels in the Pacific Arctic. Arctic Science https://doi.org/10.1139/as-2022-0052 (2023). Google Scholar Crum, N., Gowan, T., Krzystan, A. & Martin, J. Quantifying risk of whale-vessel collisions across space, time, and management policies. Ecosphere 10, e02713. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2713 (2019). Google Scholar Udell, B. J. et al. Integrating encounter theory with decision analysis to evaluate collision risk and determine optimal protection zones for wildlife. J. Appl. Ecol. 56, 1050–1062. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.13290 (2019). Google Scholar Redfern, J. V., Becker, E. A. & Moore, T. J. Effects of variability in ship traffic and whale distributions on the risk of ships striking whales. Front. Mar. Sci. 6, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00793 (2020). Roberts, J. J. et al. Habitat-based cetacean density models for the US Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Sci. Rep. 6, 22615. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep22615 (2016). Google Scholar Waggitt, J. J. et al. Distribution maps of cetacean and seabird populations in the North–East Atlantic. J. Appl. Ecol. 57, 253–269. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.13525 (2020). Google Scholar Virgili, A. et al. Seasonal distribution of cetaceans in the European Atlantic and Mediterranean waters. Front. Mar. Sci. 11, 1319791. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2024.1319791 (2024). Google Scholar Pike, D. G. et al. Estimates of the abundance of cetaceans in the Central North Atlantic from the T-NASS Icelandic and Faroese ship surveys conducted in 2007. NAMMCO Sci. Publ. 11, https://doi.org/10.7557/3.5269 (2019). Gende, S. M. et al. Active whale avoidance by large ships: Components and constraints of a complementary approach to reducing ship strike risk. Front. Mar. Sci. 6, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00592 (2019). Sèbe, M., Kontovas, C. A. & Pendleton, L. Reducing whale-ship collisions by better estimating damages to ships. Sci. Total. Environ. 713, 136643. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136643 (2020). Google Scholar Sèbe, M., Kontovas, C. A., Pendleton, L. & Gourguet, S. Cost-effectiveness of measures to reduce ship strikes: A case study on protecting the Mediterranean fin whale. Sci. Total. Environ. 827, 154236. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154236 (2022). Google Scholar Cook, D., Malinauskaite, L., Davísdóttir, B., Ögmundardóttir, H. & Roman, J. Reflections on the ecosystem services of whales and valuing their contribution to human well-being. Ocean. & Coast. Manag. 186, 105100, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2020.105100 (2020). Sheehy, J. M. et al. Review of evaluation and valuation methods for cetacean regulation and maintenance ecosystem services with the Joint Cetacean Protocol data. Front. Mar. Sci. 9, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.872679 (2022). Cates, K. et al. Strategic plan to mitigate the impacts of ship strikes on cetacean populations: 2017–2020 (International Whaling Commission, In IWC Strategic Plan to Mitigate Ship Strikes (Jersey, 2017). Google Scholar Domene, X., Ramírez, W., Mattana, S., Alcañiz, J. M. & Andrés, P. Ecological risk assessment of organic waste amendments using the species sensitivity distribution from a soil organisms test battery. Environ. Pollut. 155, 227–236. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2007.12.001 (2008). Google Scholar Koopman, B. O. The theory of search I. Kinematic bases. Oper. research 4, 324–346 (1956). Google Scholar Glennie, R., Buckland, S. T. & Thomas, L. The effect of animal movement on line transect estimates of abundance. PloS one 10, e0121333. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0121333 (2015). Google Scholar Elith, J. & Leathwick, J. R. Species distribution models: Ecological explanation and prediction across space and time. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 40, 677–697. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.110308.120159 (2009). Google Scholar Roberts, J., Yack, T. & Halpin, P. Marine mammal density models for the U.S. navy Atlantic Fleet Training and Testing (AFTT) study area for the phase iv Navy Marine Species Density Database (NMSDD). document version 1.3. Tech. Rep., Report prepared for Naval Facilities Engineering Systems Command, Atlantic by the Duke University Marine Geospatial Ecology Lab, Durham, North Carolina (2023). Barlow, J., Griffiths, E. T., Klinck, H. & Harris, D. V. Diving behavior of Cuvier’s beaked whales inferred from three-dimensional acoustic localization and tracking using a nested array of drifting hydrophone recorders. J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 144, 2030–2041. https://doi.org/10.1121/1.5055216 (2018). Google Scholar Würsig, B., Thewissen, J. & Kovacs, K. M. (eds.) Encyclopedia of Marine Mammals (Third Edition) (Elsevier, 2018), academic press edn. Laran, S. et al. A comprehensive survey of pelagic megafauna: their distribution, densities, and taxonomic richness in the tropical Southwest Indian Ocean. Front. Mar. Sci. 4, 139. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2017.00139 (2017). Google Scholar Heide-Jørgensen, M. et al. Satellite tracking of minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata) off the coast of northern Norway. J. Cetacean Res. Manage. 3, 175–178 https://doi.org/10.47536/jcrm.v3i2.887 (2001). Friedlaender, A. et al. Feeding rates and under-ice foraging strategies of the smallest lunge filter feeder, the Antarctic minke whale (Balaenoptera bonaerensis). J. Exp. Biol. 217, 2851–2854. https://doi.org/10.1242/jeb.106682 (2014). Google Scholar Hain, J. H., Hampp, J. D., McKenney, S. A., Albert, J. A. & Kenney, R. D. Swim speed, behavior, and movement of North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis) in coastal waters of northeastern Florida, USA. PloS one 8, e54340. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0054340 (2013). Google Scholar Baird, R. W., Borsani, J. F., Hanson, M. B. & Tyack, P. L. Diving and night-time behavior of long-finned pilot whales in the Ligurian Sea. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 237, 301–305. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps237301 (2002). Google Scholar Irvine, L., Palacios, D. M., Urbán, J. & Mate, B. Sperm whale dive behavior characteristics derived from intermediate-duration archival tag data. Ecol. Evol. 7, 7822–7837. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.3322 (2017). Google Scholar Download references Acknowledgements We are grateful to the many observers who participated in the surveys and collected all the data used to model cetacean densities, as well as to ship captains, crews, and pilots. We thank the Direction Générale de l’Armement Techniques Navales for providing cetacean densities in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. We thank the Duke Marine Geospatial Ecology Laboratory for providing cetacean densities in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean through their web portal (https://seamap.env.duke.edu/models/Duke/EC/). We thank the North Atlantic Marine Mammal Commission (NAMMCO) for providing cetacean densities estimated from the NASS survey. Funding The study and open access were funded by Share The Ocean. Author information Authors and Affiliations Share The Ocean, Larmor-Baden, 56870, France Auriane Virgili & Renaud Bañuls Bañulsdesign, Larmor-Baden, 56870, France Sébastien Fournier, Malo Pocheau & Renaud Bañuls Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées de l’Ecole Polytechnique, UMR 7641 CNRS, Inria, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Palaiseau, 91128, France Olivier Le Maître Observatoire Pelagis, UAR 3462 CNRS, La Rochelle Université, La Rochelle, 17000, France Vincent Ridoux Centre d’Etudes Biologiques de Chizé - La Rochelle, UMR 7372 CNRS - La Rochelle Université, Villiers-en-Bois, 79350, France Vincent Ridoux Nantes Université, Ecole nationale supérieure d’architecture de Nantes, Nantes, 44000, France Renaud Bañuls Authors Auriane Virgili View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar Sébastien Fournier View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar Olivier Le Maître View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar Malo Pocheau View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar Vincent Ridoux View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar Renaud Bañuls View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar Contributions A.V. wrote the main manuscript. A.V., S.F. and M.P. carried out the analyses. V.R., O.L.M. and R.B. contributed their expertise to the study, and R.B. supervised it. All authors reviewed the manuscript. Corresponding author Correspondence to Auriane Virgili. Ethics declarations Competing interests The authors declare no competing interests. Additional information Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Rights and permissions Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if you modified the licensed material. You do not have permission under this licence to share adapted material derived from this article or parts of it. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/. Reprints and permissions About this article Cite this article Virgili, A., Fournier, S., Le Maître, O. et al. Assessing cetacean encounter risk in offshore racing. Sci Rep (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-33896-6 Download citation Received: 09 September 2025 Accepted: 23 December 2025 Published: 29 December 2025 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-33896-6 Share this article Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:Get shareable link Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article. Copy shareable link to clipboard Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative Keywords Cetaceans Collisions/vessel strikes Offshore racing Risk assessment Subjects Ecology Ocean sciences

Abstract The improper disposal of construction and demolition waste (CDW) poses significant environmental and infrastructural challenges in India. This study investigates the barriers and opportunities associated with promoting the use of recycled secondary materials (SM). A mixed-methods approach was adopted, combining quantitative analysis of closed-ended survey responses with thematic analysis of open-ended responses. Data were collected from 73 stakeholders in Chennai, and findings were validated through triangulation. Results indicate low awareness of local waste management regulations (14%) and non-compliant waste disposal practices (> 60% disposing on roadsides, waterbodies and open lands). Quality emerged as the most critical factor influencing the purchase of SM (14.11/15), while reluctance to adopt (85% not willing) stemmed from concerns over procurement distance, costs, and the absence of client demand. Qualitative findings further reinforced quality concerns as the dominant barrier. To address these challenges, the study highlights the need for strong policy support (fiscal incentives), targeted marketing strategies (decentralised supply, diversified products), and improved industrial readiness (stakeholder awareness). Overall, the research identifies key factors enabling circular transition by emphasising consumer insights for SM market development and revealing non-compliant behaviours. Findings align with SDGs (9,11,12) and provide actionable insights for policymakers and recycling businesses. Data availability The datasets used during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request. References World Population by Country. 68% of the world population projected to live in urban areas by 2050, says UN. (2024). https://worldpopulationreview.com/. (Live). (2024). HaitherAli, H. & Anjali, G. Circular economy in construction Sector—a guideline for policy makers from global perspective. Circ. Econ. Sustain. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43615-023-00321-x (2023). Google Scholar Kabirifar, K., Mojtahedi, M., Wang, C., Tam, V. W. Y. & C. & Effective construction and demolition waste management assessment through waste management hierarchy; a case of Australian large construction companies. J. Clean. Prod. 312, 127790. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.127790 (2021). Google Scholar Chen, Z. et al. Construction, renovation, and demolition waste in landfill: a review of waste characteristics, environmental impacts, and mitigation measures. Environ. Sci. Pollut Res. 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-20479-5 (2022). Tanthanawiwat, K., Gheewala, S. H., Nilsalab, P., Schoch, M. & Silalertruksa, T. Environmental sustainability and cost performances of construction and demolition waste management scenarios: A case study of timber and concrete houses in Thailand. J. Clean. Prod. 436, 140652 (2024). Google Scholar Sharma, N., Kalbar, P. P. & Salman, M. Global review of circular economy and life cycle thinking in Building demolition waste management: A way ahead for India. Build. Environ. 222, 109413 (2022). Google Scholar Bao, Z. Developing circularity of construction waste for a sustainable built environment in emerging economies: new insights from China. Dev. Built Environ. 13, 100107 (2023). Google Scholar Jain, S., Singhal, S. & Jain, N. Construction and demolition waste (C&DW) in india: generation rate and implications of C&DW recycling. Int. J. Constr. Manag. 21, 1–10 (2018). Google Scholar Priyadarshini, P. & Abhilash, P. C. Circular economy practices within energy and waste management sectors of india: A meta-analysis. Bioresour Technol. 304, 123018 (2020). Google Scholar CSE. India drowns in construction, demolition debris. https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/waste/india-drowns-in-construction-demolition-debris-65110 Ram, V. G., Kishore, K. C. & Kalidindi, S. N. Environmental benefits of construction and demolition debris recycling: evidence from an Indian case study using life cycle assessment. J. Clean. Prod. 255, 120258 (2020). Google Scholar Su, Y. et al. Decision-making interaction among stakeholders regarding construction and demolition waste recycling under different power structures. Waste Manag. 131, 491–502 (2021). Google Scholar Pan, X., Xie, Q. & Feng, Y. Designing recycling networks for construction and demolition waste based on reserve logistics research field. J. Clean. Prod. 260, 120841 (2020). Google Scholar Kabirifar, K., Mojtahedi, M., Wang, C. & Tam, V. Construction and demolition waste management contributing factors coupled with reduce, reuse, and recycle strategies for effective waste management: A review. J. Clean. Prod. 263, 121265 (2020). Google Scholar Shooshtarian, S. et al. Utilisation of certification schemes for recycled products in the Australian Building and construction sector. Bus. Strategy Environ. 33 (3), 1759–1777 (2023). Google Scholar Shooshtarian, S. et al. Analysis of factors influencing the creation and stimulation of the Australian market for recycled construction and demolition waste products. Sustain. Prod. Consum. 34, 163–176 (2022). Google Scholar Shooshtarian, S., Caldera, S., Maqsood, T. & Ryley, T. Using recycled construction and demolition waste products: A review of stakeholders’ Perceptions, Decisions, and motivations. Recycling 5, 31 (2020). Google Scholar Shooshtarian, S., Maqsood, T., Caldera, S. & Ryley, T. The impact of regulations on construction and demolition waste market creation and stimulation: Australian stakeholders’ perception. IOP Conf. Ser. Earth Environ. Sci. 1101, 062012 (2022). Google Scholar Hua, C., Liu, C., Chen, J., Yang, C. & Chen, L. Promoting construction and demolition waste recycling by using incentive policies in China. Environ. Sci. Pollut Res. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-19536-w (2022). Google Scholar C, J. J., Joseph, T. M. & Abu-Lebdeh, G. Perception of the Use of Recycled Construction Waste in the UAE’s Construction Industry. in IEEE International Conference on Technology Management, Operations and Decisions (ICTMOD) 1–6 (2024). Delvoie, S., Zhao, Z., Michel, F. & Courard, L. Market analysis of recycled sands and aggregates in NorthWest europe: drivers and barriers. IOP Conf. Ser. Earth Environ. Sci. 225, 012055 (2019). Google Scholar Chellappa, V., Gunasekaran, A. L. & Ramakrishnan, K. Factors influencing construction waste generation: perspectives from India. Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng. - Waste Resour. Manag. 177, 90–99 (2023). Kolaventi, S. S., Tezeswi, T. & Siva Kumar, M. An assessment of construction waste management in india: A statistical approach. Waste Manag Res. 38, 444–459 (2020). Google Scholar Nishaant, H. & Sudhakumar, J. Identifying and analysing critical factors in construction resource waste management – Indian perspective. Int. J. Environ. Waste Manag. 37, 291–326 (2025). Google Scholar Chandrasekaran, H., Subramani, S. E., Partheeban, P. & Sridhar, M. IoT- and GIS-Based environmental impact assessment of construction and demolition waste dump yards. Sustainability 15, 13013 (2023). Google Scholar Devaki, H. & Shanmugapriya, S. Site suitability analysis for locating construction and demolition waste transfer station: an Indian case study. Environ. Monit. Assess. 195, 1–12 (2023). Google Scholar Jain, S., Singhal, S. & Pandey, S. Environmental life cycle assessment of construction and demolition waste recycling: A case of urban India. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 155, 104642 (2020). Google Scholar Kamma, R. C. & Jha, K. N. Evaluation of construction and demolition waste management practices using environmental and economic impact assessment. Eng Constr. Archit. Manag 1–22 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-07-2023-0718 https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-07-2023-0718 Bhavsar, V., Sridharan, S. R. & Sudarsan, J. S. Barriers to circular economy practices during construction and demolition waste management in an emerging economy. Resour. Conserv. Recycl Adv. 20, 200198 (2023). Google Scholar Devaki, H. & Shanmugapriya, S. Investigating barriers to sustainable management of construction and demolition waste: the case of India. J. Mater. Cycles Waste Manag. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10163-023-01631-w (2023). Google Scholar Jain, S., Singhal, S., Jain, N. K. & Bhaskar, K. Construction and demolition waste recycling: investigating the role of theory of planned behavior, institutional pressures and environmental consciousness. J. Clean. Prod. 263, 121405 (2020). Google Scholar Kolaventi, S. S. & Tejeswi, P. Siva Kumar., M.V.N. Implementing construction waste management in india: an extended theory of planned behaviour approach. Environ. Technol. Innov. 27, 102401 (2022). Google Scholar Arif, M., Bendi, D., Toma-Sabbagh, T. & Sutrisna, M. Construction waste management in india: an exploratory study. Constr. Innov. 12, 133–155 (2012). Google Scholar Faruqi, M. H. Z. & Siddiqui, F. Z. A mini review of construction and demolition waste management in India. Waste Manag Res. 38, 708–716 (2020). Google Scholar HaitherAli, H., G, Anjali & Sustainable urban development: evaluating the potential of mineral-based construction and demolition waste recycling in emerging economies. Sustain. Futur. 7, 100179 (2024). Google Scholar Sheth, J. N., Jain, V. & Ambika, A. The growing importance of customer-centric support services for improving customer experience. J. Bus. Res. 164, 113943 (2023). Google Scholar Nehdi, M. L., Marani, A. & Zhang, L. Is net-zero feasible: systematic review of cement and concrete decarbonization technologies. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 191, 114169 (2024). Google Scholar Hosseinnezhad, H., Sürmelioğlu, S., Çakır, Ö. A. & Ramyar, K. A novel method for characterization of recycled concrete aggregates: computerized microtomography. J. Build. Eng. 76, 107321 (2023). Google Scholar Alsheyab, M. A. T. Recycling of construction and demolition waste and its impact on climate change and sustainable development. Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol. 19, 2129–2138 (2022). Google Scholar He, L. & Yuan, H. Investigation of construction waste recycling decisions by considering consumers’ quality perceptions. J. Clean. Prod. 259, 120928 (2020). Google Scholar Ding, Z., Nie, W. & Wu, H. Investigating the connection between stakeholders’ purchase intention and perceived value of construction and demolition waste recycled products. Environ. Dev. Sustain. 24, 9285–9303 (2022). Google Scholar Ma, M., Tam, V. W. Y., Le, K. N. & Li, W. Challenges in current construction and demolition waste recycling: A China study. Waste Manag. 118, 610–625 (2020). Google Scholar Ma, M., Tam, V. W. Y., Le, K. N. & Osei-Kyei, R. Factors affecting the price of recycled concrete: A critical review. J. Build. Eng. 46, 103743 (2022). Google Scholar Jin, R., Li, B., Zhou, T., Wanatowski, D. & Piroozfar, P. An empirical study of perceptions towards construction and demolition waste recycling and reuse in China. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 126, 86–98 (2017). Google Scholar Gunaratne, T., Krook, J. & Andersson, H. Market prospects of secondary construction aggregates in Sweden. J Clean. Prod 360, 132155 (2022). Ghaffar, S. H., Burman, M. & Braimah, N. Pathways to circular construction: an integrated management of construction and demolition waste for resource recovery. J. Clean. Prod. 244, 118710 (2020). Google Scholar Bonifazi, G., Grosso, C., Palmieri, R. & Serranti, S. Current trends and challenges in construction and demolition waste recycling. Curr. Opin. Green. Sustain. Chem. 53, 101032 (2025). Google Scholar Bolden, J., Abu-Lebdeh, T., Fini, E., UTILIZATION OF RECYCLED & AND WASTE MATERIALS IN VARIOUS CONSTRUCTION APPLICATIONS. Am. J. Environ. Sci. 9, 14–24 (2013). Google Scholar Tam, V. W. Y., Kotrayothar, D. & Loo, Y. C. On the prevailing construction waste recycling practices: a South East Queensland study. Waste Manag Res. 27, 167–174 (2009). Google Scholar Oyedele, L. O., Ajayi, S. O. & Kadiri, K. O. Use of recycled products in UK construction industry: an empirical investigation into critical impediments and strategies for improvement. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 93, 23–31 (2014). Google Scholar Mak, T. M. W. et al. Extended theory of planned behaviour for promoting construction waste recycling in Hong Kong. Waste Manag. 83, 161–170 (2019). Google Scholar Otasowie, K., Aigbavboa, C., Oke, A., Adekunle, P. & Liphadzi, M. Constraints to Clients’ Acceptance of Recycled Construction Materials in Developing Nations: Professionals’ Perspective. Eng. Proc. 76, 60 (2024). Su, Y., Xu, Y., Bao, Z., Ng, S. T. & Gao, Q. Stakeholder interactions of government intervention in construction and demolition waste recycling market: A game theory approach. Dev. Built Environ. 18, 100391 (2024). Google Scholar Verhagen, T. J., Sauer, M. L., van der Voet, E. & Sprecher, B. Matching demolition and construction material Flows, an urban mining case study. Sustainability 13, 653 (2021). Google Scholar Ghisellini, P. & Ulgiati, S. Circular economy transition in Italy. Achievements, perspectives and constraints. J. Clean. Prod. 243, 118360 (2020). Google Scholar MoEF&CC, Construction & Rules, D. W. M. Central Pollution Control Board, Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, Government of India (2016). Adak, B. No takers for recycled goods, C&D plants in Delhi run into losses. Hindustan Times (2019). https://www.hindustantimes.com/delhi-news/no-takers-for-recycled-goods-c-d-plants-in-delhi-run-into-losses/story-fcqxkniK32f5hznCbDxF3K.html Sharma, N., Das, D., Kalbar, P. P. & Salman, M. Exploring the feasibility of construction and demolition waste recycling in an emerging Indian City using a dynamic modeling approach. J. Ind. Ecol. 29, 1632–1650 (2025). Google Scholar Cheung, A. K. L. Structured questionnaires. In Encyclopedia of Quality of Life and Well-Being Research (ed. Michalos, A. C.) 6399–6402 (Springer Netherlands, 2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-0753-5_2888. Google Scholar Palinkas, L. A. et al. Purposeful sampling for qualitative data collection and analysis in mixed method implementation research. Adm. Policy Ment Health. 42, 533–544 (2015). Google Scholar Mason, M. Sample size and saturation in PhD studies using qualitative interviews. Forum Qual. Sozialforschung Forum Qual. Soc. Res 11(3), Art.8 (2010). Ajayi, S. O. & Oyedele, L. O. Waste-efficient materials procurement for construction projects: A structural equation modelling of critical success factors. Waste Manag. 75, 60–69 (2018). Google Scholar Dragan, I. M. & Isaic-Maniu, A. An original solution for completing research through snowball Sampling—Handicapping method. Adv. Appl. Sociol. 12, 729–746 (2022). Google Scholar Holt, G. D. Asking questions, analysing answers: relative importance revisited. Constr. Innov. 14, 2–16 (2014). Google Scholar Naeem, M., Ozuem, W., Howell, K. & Ranfagni, S. A. Step-by-Step process of thematic analysis to develop a conceptual model in qualitative research. Int. J. Qual. Methods. 22, 16094069231205789 (2023). Google Scholar Carter, N., Bryant-Lukosius, D., DiCenso, A., Blythe, J. & Neville, A. J. The use of triangulation in qualitative research. Oncol. Nurs. Forum. 41, 545–547 (2014). Google Scholar Chaitanya, S. K. Realtors dump debris to ‘reclaim’ Chennai’s Pallikaranai Ramsar site. The New Indian Express (2023). https://www.newindianexpress.com/states/tamil-nadu/2023/Mar/16/realtors-dump-debris-to-reclaim-chennais-pallikaranai-ramsar-site-2556798.html Köhler, J., Nielsen, F., Verstermark, F., Thuesen, C. & J. & Recirculation of construction and demolition waste: A case study of Danish producers and demolishers. Clean. Mater. 14, 100276 (2024). Google Scholar Prasad, V. & Arashpour, M. Real-time instance segmentation of recyclables from highly cluttered construction and demolition waste streams. J. Environ. Manage. 372, 123365 (2024). Google Scholar Mhatre, P., Gedam, V. V. & Unnikrishnan, S. Material circularity potential for construction materials – The case of transportation infrastructure in India. Resour. Policy. 74, 102446 (2021). Google Scholar Demestichas, K. & Daskalakis, E. Information and communication technology solutions for the circular economy. Sustainability 12, 7272 (2020). Google Scholar Cui, C., Liu, Y., Hope, A. & Wang, J. Review of studies on the public–private partnerships (PPP) for infrastructure projects. Int. J. Proj Manag. 36, 773–794 (2018). Google Scholar Donyavi, S., Flanagan, R., Assadi-Langroudi, A. & Parisi, L. Understanding the complexity of materials procurement in construction projects to build a conceptual framework influencing supply chain management of MSMEs. Int. J. Constr. Manag. 24, 177–186 (2024). Google Scholar Ma, W. & Hao, J. L. Enhancing a circular economy for construction and demolition waste management in china: A stakeholder engagement and key strategy approach. J. Clean. Prod. 450, 141763 (2024). Google Scholar Ram, V. G., Kalidindi, S. & Nanduru, H. K. Influence of institutional arrangements on on-site recycling and reuse practices of C&D waste. (2017). Wu, Z., Yu, A. T. W. & Poon, C. S. Promoting effective construction and demolition waste management towards sustainable development: A case study of Hong Kong. Sustain. Dev. 28, 1713–1724 (2020). Google Scholar Akhtar, A. & Sarmah, A. K. Accepted Manuscript Construction and demolition waste generation and properties of recycled aggregate concrete: A global perspective. (2018). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.03.085 doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.03.085. Aslam, M. S., Huang, B. & Cui, L. Review of construction and demolition waste management in China and USA. Journal of Environmental Management vol. 264 Preprint at (2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110445 Lu, W., Webster, C., Chen, K., Zhang, X. & Chen, X. Computational Building information modelling for construction waste management: moving from rhetoric to reality. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 68, 587–595 (2017). Google Scholar Yu, A. T. W., Wong, I., Wu, Z. & Poon, C. S. Strategies for effective waste reduction and management of Building construction projects in highly urbanized Cities—A case study of Hong Kong. Buildings 11, 214 (2021). Google Scholar Kessal, O., Belgraa, L., Djebri, N., Salah, S. & Allal, Z. Improvement of the mechanical behavior of an environmental concrete based on demolished concrete waste and silica fume. Civ. Eng. J. 8, 238–250 (2022). Google Scholar Duening, T. N., Hisrich, R. D. & Lechter, M. A. Chapter 10 - Marketing and Selling Your Products. in Technology Entrepreneurship (Second Edition) (eds Duening, T. N., Hisrich, R. D. & Lechter, M. A.) 231–249Academic Press, Boston, (2015). https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-420175-0.00010-5 Chang, S. C. & Wang, C. F. The effect of product diversification strategies on the relationship between international diversification and firm performance. J. World Bus. 42, 61–79 (2007). Google Scholar Cengiz, A. E., Aytekin, O., Ozdemir, I., Kusan, H. & Cabuk, A. A Multi-criteria decision model for construction material supplier selection. Procedia Eng. 196, 294–301 (2017). Google Scholar Shooshtarian, S., Caldera, S., Maqsood, T., Ryley, T. & Khalfan, M. An investigation into challenges and opportunities in the Australian construction and demolition waste management system. Eng. Constr. Archit. Manag. 29, 4313–4330 (2021). Google Scholar MoEF&CC, Construction & Rules, D. W. M. 2025 Central Pollution Control Board, Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, Government of India (2024). Download references Acknowledgements We thank Mr. Muralidharan Nanda Govindarajulu, Chairman, Indian Concrete Institute, and Mr. Mohan Ramanathan, Founder-Chairman, Indian Demolition Association, for their exceptional mentoring and insights into the C&D waste sector, which greatly enhanced our understanding of its technical and behavioural challenges in India. Funding Open access funding provided by Vellore Institute of Technology. Author information Authors and Affiliations School of Civil Engineering, Vellore Institute of Technology, Chennai, 600127, India Hammadhu HaitherAli & Anjali Gopakumar School of Property, Construction and Project Management, RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia Salman Shooshtarian Authors Hammadhu HaitherAli View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar Salman Shooshtarian View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar Anjali Gopakumar View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar Contributions Hammadhu HaitherAli: Conceptualization, data collection, analysis, visualization and writing. Salman Shooshtarian: Supervision and review. Anjali Gopakumar: Review and edit the manuscript and proofreading. Corresponding author Correspondence to Anjali Gopakumar. Ethics declarations Competing interests The authors declare no competing interests. Ethical committee approval Institutional Ethical Committee for Studies on Human Subjects (IECH), Vellore Institute of Technology, Chennai [VIT/IECH/CC/2025/89]. Additional information Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Rights and permissions Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. Reprints and permissions About this article Cite this article HaitherAli, H., Shooshtarian, S. & Gopakumar, A. Exploring waste disposal attitudes and market strategies for recycled construction and demolition waste in India. Sci Rep (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-32996-7 Download citation Received: 27 September 2025 Accepted: 15 December 2025 Published: 29 December 2025 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-32996-7 Share this article Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:Get shareable link Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article. Copy shareable link to clipboard Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative Keywords Circular economy Stakeholder Market analysis Construction and demolition waste Secondary material Subjects Engineering Environmental sciences Environmental social sciences Environmental studies

Abstract The tight sandstone reservoir exhibits a complex pore structure and strong heterogeneity. Accurate characterization of its pore structure is crucial for improving the efficiency of tight oil development. This study investigates tight sandstone samples exhibiting different oil-bearing levels from the Fuyu oil reservoir of the fourth member of the Quantou Formation in the Xinmiao area, located in the southern Songliao Basin. The influence of pore structure on oil-bearing capacity was investigated through a series of systematic experiments, including low-pressure nitrogen adsorption (LPN2A), high-pressure mercury intrusion (HPMI), constant-rate mercury intrusion (CRMI), nano-computed tomography (nano-CT), and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR). The results show that: (1) The microscopic pore structure influences the macroscopic oil-bearing capacity. As the oil-bearing level of the sample increases, the corresponding pore structure gradually improves, and the oil saturation increases to 32.93%, 40.36%, 42.61%, and 50.80%, respectively. (2) The oil saturation of fluorescent samples was primarily contributed by small pores (T2  100 ms), with a contribution rate of 54.45%. (3) Pore-throat connectivity and its heterogeneity are the key factors influencing the oil-bearing capacity of tight sandstone in the study area. The pore-throat radius, connected pore throat volume percentage and NMR fractal dimension are the best parameters to characterize oil-bearing capacity. (4) The lower limit for oil-bearing capacity in the tight sandstone reservoir of the study area is oil trace, and the corresponding threshold values of a pore–throat radius of 1.19 μm, a connected pore–throat volume percentage of 47.5%, and an NMR fractal dimension of 2.8169. This research establishes a quantitative linkage between pore-throat structure and oil-bearing capacity, providing diagnostic parameters for tight oil evaluation. Data availability The data are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. References Jia, C., Pang, X. & Song, Y. Whole petroleum system and ordered distribution pattern of conventional and unconventional oil and gas reservoirs. Pet. Sci. 20 (1), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.petsci.2022.12.012 (2023). Google Scholar Stolz, J., Ziegler, C. & Griffin, W. Global unconventional oil and gas reserves and their development. In Environmental Impacts from the Development of Unconventional Oil and Gas Reserves (eds Stolz, J. et al.) 3–18 (Cambridge University Press, 2022). https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108774178.003. Google Scholar Zhou, N. et al. Limits and grading evaluation criteria of tight oil reservoirs in typical continental basins of China. Pet. Explor. Dev. 48 (5), 1089–1100. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1876-3804(21)60093-9 (2021). Google Scholar Jia, C. Breakthrough and significance of unconventional oil and gas to classical petroleum geology theory. Pet. Explor. Dev. 44 (1), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1876-3804(17)30002-2 (2017). Google Scholar Dong, X., Meng, X. & Pu, R. Impacts of mineralogy and pore throat structure on the movable fluid of tight sandstone gas reservoirs in coal measure strata: A case study of the Shanxi formation along the southeastern margin of the Ordos basin. J. Petrol. Sci. Eng. 220 (A), 111257. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.petrol.2022.111257 (2023). Google Scholar Meng, Z., Sun, W., Liu, Y., Luo, B. & Zhao, M. Effect of pore networks on the properties of movable fluids in tight sandstones from the perspective of multi-techniques. J. Petrol. Sci. Eng. 201, 108449. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.petrol.2021.108449 (2021). Google Scholar Li, P., Zheng, M., Bi, H., Wu, S. & Wang, X. Pore throat structure and fractal characteristics of tight oil sandstone: A case study in the Ordos Basin, China. J. Petrol. Sci. Eng. 149, 665–674. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.petrol.2016.11.015 (2017). Google Scholar Zhang, Q. et al. Effects of pore-throat structures on the fluid mobility in Chang 7 tight sandstone reservoirs of Longdong area, Ordos basin. Mar. Pet. Geol. 135, 105407. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpetgeo.2021.105407 (2022). Google Scholar Pang, X. et al. Insights into the pore structure and oil mobility in fine-grained sedimentary rocks: the Lucaogou formation in Jimusar Sag, Junggar Basin, China. Mar. Pet. Geol. 137, 105492. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpetgeo.2021.105492 (2022). Google Scholar Xiao, D. et al. Impacts of clay on pore structure, storage and percolation of tight sandstones from the Songliao Basin, china: implications for genetic classification of tight sandstone reservoirs. Fuel 211, 390–404. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fuel.2017.09.084 (2018). Google Scholar Qiao, J. et al. Effects of mineralogy on pore structure and fluid flow capacity of deeply buried sandstone reservoirs with a case study in the Junggar basin. J. Petrol. Sci. Eng. 189, 106986. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.petrol.2020.106986 (2020). Google Scholar Shen, H. et al. New fields, new types and resource potentials of oil-gas exploration in Southern Songliao basin. Acta Petrolei Sinica. 44 (12), 2104–2121. https://doi.org/10.7623/syxb202312007 (2023). Google Scholar Li, M., Qu, Z., Wang, M. & Ran, W. The influence of micro-heterogeneity on water injection development in low-permeability sandstone oil reservoirs. Minerals 13 (12), 1533. https://doi.org/10.3390/min13121533 (2023). Google Scholar Wang, T. & Philp, R. Oil families and inferred source rocks of the Woodford–Mississippian tight oil play in northcentral Oklahoma. AAPG Bull. 103 (4), 871–903. https://doi.org/10.1306/09181818049 (2019). Google Scholar Lin, R. et al. Experimental evaluation of tight sandstones reservoir flow characteristics under CO2-Brine-Rock multiphase interactions: a case study in the Chang 6 layer, Ordos Basin, China. Fuel 309, 122167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fuel.2021.122167 (2022). Google Scholar Wang, Z. et al. Differential development characteristics of secondary pores and effects on pore structure and movable fluid distribution in tight gas sandstones in the lower Permian, Northeastern Ordos Basin, China. Geoenergy Sci. Eng. 224, 211580. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoen.2023.211580 (2023). Google Scholar Xiao, D., Lu, S., Lu, Z., Huang, W. & Gu, M. Combining nuclear magnetic resonance and rate-controlled porosimetry to probe the pore-throat structure of tight sandstones. Pet. Explor. Dev. 43 (6), 1049–1059. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1876-3804(16)30122-7 (2016). Google Scholar Xiao, D., Lu, Z., Jiang, S. & Lu, S. Comparison and integration of experimental methods to characterize the full-range pore features of tight gas sandstone—A case study in Songliao basin of China. J. Nat. Gas Sci. Eng. 34, 1412–1421. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jngse.2016.08.029 (2016). Google Scholar Xiao, D., Lu, S., Yang, J., Zhang, L. & Li, B. Classifying multiscale pores and investigating their relationship with porosity and permeability in tight sandstone gas reservoirs. Energy Fuels. 31 (9), 9188–9200. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.energyfuels.7b01487 (2017). Google Scholar Hosseini, M. Estimation of mean pore-size using formation evaluation and Stoneley slowness. J. Nat. Gas Sci. Eng. 33, 898–907. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jngse.2016.06.029 (2016). Google Scholar Hosseini, M., Javaherian, A. & Movahed, B. Determination of permeability index using Stoneley slowness analysis, NMR models, and formation evaluations: a case study from a gas reservoir, South of Iran. J. Appl. Geophys. 109, 80–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jappgeo.2014.07.016 (2014). Google Scholar Hosseini, M. Formation evaluation of a clastic gas reservoir: presentation of a solution to a fundamentally difficult problem. J. Geophys. Eng. 15 (6), 2418–2432. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-2140/aacee3 (2018). Google Scholar Baban, A. et al. Robust NMR examination of the three-phase flow dynamics of carbon geosequestration combined with enhanced oil recovery in carbonate formations. Energy Fuels. 38 (3), 2167–2176. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.energyfuels.3c04674 (2024). Google Scholar Arif, M., Awan, F., Zhang, H. & Hosseini, M. Coal wettability: a holistic overview of the data sets, influencing factors, and knowledge gaps. Energy Fuels. 38 (16), 15069–15084. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.energyfuels.4c03052 (2024). Google Scholar Hosseini, M., Arif, M., Keshavarz, A. & Iglauer, S. Neutron scattering: a subsurface application review. Earth Sci. Rev. 221, 103755. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2021.103755 (2021). Google Scholar Rota, G. Les objects fractals: B. Mandelbrot, Flammarion, 186 pp. Advances in Mathematics 22(1), 129 (1976). (1975). https://doi.org/10.1016/0001-8708(76)90143-2 Mandelbrot, B. The Fractal Geometry of Nature, Revised and Enlarged Ed (W.H. Freeman and Co., 1983). Zhao, C. et al. Characterization and fractal characteristics of nano-scale pore structure in shale gas reservoirs: A case study of the deep longmaxi Formation, Zigong region, Southern Sichuan Basin, China. Front. Earth Sci. 12, 1410437. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2024.1410437 (2024). Google Scholar Yao, Y., Liu, D., Tang, D., Tang, S. & Huang, W. Fractal characterization of adsorption-pores of coals from North china: an investigation on CH₄ adsorption capacity of coals. Int. J. Coal Geol. 73 (1), 27–42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coal.2007.07.003 (2008). Google Scholar Anovitz, L. et al. Diagenetic changes in macro- to nano-scale porosity in the St. Peter sandstone: an (ultra) small angle neutron scattering and backscattered electron imaging analysis. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta. 102, 280–305. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2012.07.035 (2013). Google Scholar Zhu, J., Zhang, R., Zhang, Y. & He, F. The fractal characteristics of pore size distribution in cement-based materials and its effect on gas permeability. Sci. Rep. 9, 17191. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-53828-5 (2019). Google Scholar Zuo, M. et al. Fractal model of spontaneous imbibition in low-permeability reservoirs coupled with heterogeneity of pore seepage channels and threshold pressure. Pet. Sci. 21 (2), 1002–1017. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.petsci.2023.10.027 (2024). Google Scholar Zhang, L., Lu, S., Xiao, D. & Li, B. Pore structure characteristics of tight sandstones in the Northern Songliao Basin, China. Mar. Pet. Geol. 88, 170–180. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpetgeo.2017.08.005 (2017). Google Scholar Zhu, G., Wang, X., Bai, X., Lu, J. & Li, J. New exploration fields and resource potential of tight oil in Northern Songliao basin. Acta Petrolei Sinica. 46 (1), 33–47. https://doi.org/10.7623/syxb202501003 (2025). Google Scholar Li, Z., Bao, Z., Wei, Z., Li, L. & Wang, H. Geochemical features of lacustrine shales in the upper cretaceous Qingshankou formation of Changling Sag, Songliao Basin, Northeast China. Energies 15 (19), 6983. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15196983 (2022). Google Scholar Cui, Y. et al. Sedimentary characteristics and evolution of shallow-water meandering river delta in Fuyu oil layer, Southern fuxin uplift zone, Songliao basin. J. Palaeogeography. 27 (5), 1207–1226. https://doi.org/10.7605/gdlxb.2025.076 (2025). Google Scholar Huang, W. et al. Diagenesis and micro-and nano-scale reservoir spaces evolution of tight sandstones in Quantou4 member of Southern Songliao basin. J. China Univ. Petroleum. 20 (1), 11–20. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1673-5005.2018.01.002 (2018). Google Scholar Feng, G. et al. Scale-dependent fractal properties and geological factors for the pore structure in shale: insights from field emission scanning electron microscopy and fluid intrusion. Energy Fuels. 37 (21), 16519–16535. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.energyfuels.3c02833 (2023). Google Scholar Zhang, T., Li, Z., Lai, F., Adenutsi, C. & You, Q. Effects of the sandstone pore structure on spontaneous imbibition: a systematic experimental investigation based on fractal analysis. Energy Fuels. 36 (1), 382–396. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.energyfuels.1c03696 (2022). Google Scholar Li, B. et al. Comparative analysis of CO₂ sequestration potential in shale reservoirs: insights from the longmaxi and Qiongzhusi formations. Minerals 15, 997. https://doi.org/10.3390/min15090997 (2025). Google Scholar Liu, K. A new method for characterizing the pore-throat structure of tight sandstone based on nuclear magnetic resonance and constant-rate mercury intrusion. Special Oil Gas Reservoirs. 32 (1), 135–143. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1006-6535.2025.01.016 (2025). Google Scholar Sun, W. et al. Fractal analysis of pores and the pore structure of the lower cambrian Niutitang shale in Northern Guizhou province: investigations using NMR, SEM and image analyses. Mar. Pet. Geol. 99, 416–428. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpetgeo.2018.10.042 (2019). Google Scholar Bera, A., Shukla, B. & Jogani, D. A perspective review of applications of the computed tomography (CT) scan imaging technique for microscopic reservoir rock characterization. Deep Undergr. Sci. Eng. 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1002/dug2.12138 (2025). Sing, K. Reporting physisorption data for gas/solid systems with special reference to the determination of surface area and porosity (Recommendations 1984). Pure Appl. Chem. 57 (4), 603–619. https://doi.org/10.1351/pac198557040603 (1985). Google Scholar Yang, F., Ning, Z. & Liu, H. Fractal characteristics of shales from a shale gas reservoir in the Sichuan basin. China Fuel. 115, 378–384. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fuel.2013.07.040 (2014). Google Scholar Wang, M., Xue, H., Tian, S., Wilkins, R. & Wang, Z. Fractal characteristics of upper cretaceous lacustrine shale from the Songliao Basin, NE China. Mar. Pet. Geol. 67, 144–153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpetgeo.2015.05.011 (2015). Google Scholar Zhang, J. et al. Pore structure and fractal characteristics of coal-bearing cretaceous Nenjiang shales from Songliao Basin, Northeast China. Nat. Gas Geoscience. 35 (1), 119–132. https://doi.org/10.11764/j.issn.1672-1926.2023.07.018 (2024). Google Scholar Li, L. et al. Microscopic pore structure and fractal characteristics of tight sandstone gas reservoir: A case study of Denglouku formation in Changling gas Field, Songliao basin. Nat. Gas Geoscience. 34 (6), 1039–1052. https://doi.org/10.11764/j.issn.1672-1926.2023.02.002 (2023). Google Scholar Lai, J. et al. Fractal analysis of tight Shaly sandstones using nuclear magnetic resonance measurements. AAPG Bull. 102 (2), 175–193. https://doi.org/10.1306/0425171609817007 (2018). Google Scholar Zhang, J., Tang, Y., He, D., Sun, P. & Zou, X. Full-scale nanopore system and fractal characteristics of clay-rich lacustrine shale combining FE-SEM, nano-CT, gas adsorption and mercury intrusion porosimetry. Appl. Clay Sci. 196, 105758. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.clay.2020.105758 (2020). Google Scholar Wang, R. et al. Identification of ultra-low permeability sandstone reservoir nano pore-throat by multi-scale CT imaging technique. Progress Geophys. 35 (1), 188–196. https://doi.org/10.6038/pg2020CC0336 (2020). Google Scholar Su, Y. et al. Pore structure and fluid distribution of tight sandstone by the combined use of SEM, MICP and X-ray micro-CT. J. Petrol. Sci. Eng. 208 (E), 109241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.petrol.2021.109241 (2022). Google Scholar Lai, J. et al. Insight into the pore structure of tight sandstones using NMR and HPMI measurements. Energy Fuels. 30 (12), 10200–10214. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.energyfuels.6b01982 (2016). Google Scholar Wang, J., Wu, S., Li, Q., Zhang, J. & Guo, Q. Characterization of the pore-throat size of tight oil reservoirs and its control on reservoir physical properties: A case study of the triassic tight sandstone of the sediment gravity flow in the Ordos Basin, China. J. Petrol. Sci. Eng. 186, 106701. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.petrol.2019.106701 (2020). Google Scholar Gong, Y. & Liu, K. Pore throat size distribution and oiliness of tight sands-A case study of the Southern Songliao Basin, China. J. Petrol. Sci. Eng. 184, 106508. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.petrol.2019.106508 (2020). Google Scholar Lai, J. et al. Fan, X. A review on pore structure characterization in tight sandstones. Earth Sci. Rev. 177, 436–457. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.12.003 (2018). Google Scholar Qiao, J. et al. Insights into the pore structure and implications for fluid flow capacity of tight gas sandstone: A case study in the upper paleozoic of the Ordos basin. Mar. Pet. Geol. 118, 104439. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpetgeo.2020.104439 (2020). Google Scholar Qu, Y. et al. Impacts of pore-throat spaces on movable fluid: implications for Understanding the tight oil exploitation process. Mar. Pet. Geol. 137, 105509. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpetgeo.2021.105509 (2022). Google Scholar Liu, Z., Li, C., Lu, Y., Wang, Y. & Huang, J. Fluid occurrence state and permeability evaluation of low-permeability sandstone based on pore structure characterization. J. Jilin Univ. (Earth Sci. Edition). 54 (4), 1124–1136. https://doi.org/10.13278/j.cnki.jjuese.20230056 (2024). Google Scholar Download references Funding This research was funded by the Research on ballast stone demonstration project in Daqingzijing Oilfield (2023YQX10208); the Research on the key technology of chemical flooding to enhance oil recovery in low permeability/tight reservoir (2023ZZ17YJ04); the Chongqing Municipal Education Commission Science and Technology Research Plan Project (KJQN202301537); the General Program of Chongqing Natural Science Foundation (CSTB2022NSCQ-MSX1423); the General Program of Chongqing Natural Science Foundation (CSTB2025NSCQ-GPX0934). Author information Authors and Affiliations Exploration and Development Research Institute of PetroChina Jilin Oilfield, Songyuan, 138000, China Hailong Wang, Zhongcheng Li, Hongxue Wang, Hairui Wu, Qi Liu, Qing Guo, Tingting Wang & Yuanhao Li School of Energy Resources, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing, 100083, China Sijie He School of Petroleum Engineering, Chongqing University of Science and Technology, Chongqing, 401331, China Feifei Fang PetroChina Jilin Oilfield Company, Songyuan, 138000, China You Yu & Chenxu Bian Authors Hailong Wang View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar Zhongcheng Li View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar Sijie He View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar Feifei Fang View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar Hongxue Wang View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar Hairui Wu View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar Qi Liu View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar Qing Guo View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar Tingting Wang View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar Yuanhao Li View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar You Yu View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar Chenxu Bian View author publications Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar Contributions H.L.W., Z.C.L.,S.J.H. and F.F.F. wrote the main manuscript text, and H.X.W., H.R.W., Q.L.,Q.G., T.T.W., Y.H.L, Y.Y. and C.X.B. prepared Figs. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 and 18. All authors reviewed the manuscript. Corresponding authors Correspondence to Sijie He or Feifei Fang. Ethics declarations Competing interests The authors declare no competing interests. Additional information Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Rights and permissions Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if you modified the licensed material. You do not have permission under this licence to share adapted material derived from this article or parts of it. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/. Reprints and permissions About this article Cite this article Wang, H., Li, Z., He, S. et al. Influencing factors of oil-bearing capacity in tight sandstones based on pore structure characterization: a case study of the Fuyu reservoir in the Xinmiao oilfield, Southern Songliao Basin. Sci Rep (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-34053-9 Download citation Received: 06 September 2025 Accepted: 24 December 2025 Published: 29 December 2025 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-34053-9 Share this article Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:Get shareable link Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article. Copy shareable link to clipboard Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative Keywords Tight sandstone Oil-bearing capacity Pore structure characterization Fuyu oil reservoir Xinmiao oilfield Southern songliao basin Subjects Energy science and technology Engineering Solid Earth sciences