A patch of turbulence last year has not dimmed the mining industry’s positive outlook over the next five years, according to a new report by the Australian Resources and Energy Employer Association (AREEA). 

The Resources and Energy Workforce Forecast: 2025–2030 projects that 96 major mining and energy projects will commence production between late 2025 and 2030. Together, these projects are valued at $129.5 billion and expected to create demand for 22,279 new operational jobs, lifting the national resources and energy workforce by 7.1 per cent by 2030. 

Most of this demand will come from mining, with 80 projects forecast to require around 19,425 workers. The report noted that while the bulk of hiring will occur in the first three years, a larger-than-usual share — about 7,500 jobs — will be pushed out to 2028–2030. 

The greatest workforce needs are projected in plant operations (8,110 roles), heavy diesel fitting (2,700), other trades including electrical and maintenance (845), as well as in supervision, management and administration (3,885), and mine engineering, technical and geology services (3,885). 

“Australia’s resources and energy industry has once again demonstrated its resilience, with direct employment rebounding to near-record levels after the turbulence of 2024,” the report said. 

While this is the lowest five-year outlook in more than half a decade, it marks a turnaround from the dip recorded in 2024 and resets the sector towards a growth trajectory. The report described the forecast as “a moderate slowdown in the project and workforce pipeline compared with recent years.” 

Growth prospects vary by state. Western Australia’s project pipeline has fallen from 48 projects and 11,065 jobs in 2024 to 42 projects and 8,924 jobs in 2025. New South Wales has dropped from 19 projects and 5,412 jobs to 11 projects and 3,290 jobs. In contrast, Queensland has surged from 11 projects and 3,527 jobs to 17 projects and 4,412 jobs. 

However, the report cautioned that Queensland’s outlook may be undermined by the state’s coal royalty regime. “It may appear Queensland has firmly re-established itself as the nation’s second most attractive mining destination, however … there remains a risk any new workforce demand could be offset by significant coal sector job losses.” 

The report also highlighted challenges including mounting red tape and intensifying global competition for investment.  

At the same time, Australia’s project pipeline is diversifying, with 21 projects in commodities such as alumina, graphite, phosphate and mineral sands requiring about 3,000 workers. Gold, copper and critical minerals are also expected to make strong contributions, while iron ore (8 projects / 3,400 workers) and coal (7 projects / 3,100 workers) remain reliable drivers. 

AREEA chief executive Steve Knott AM stressed the industry’s central role in the national economy but warned against poor policy decisions. “Iron ore, coal and gas remain the bedrock of our export earnings, taxes and royalties. Without this sector, there would be no federal surpluses and no reliable funding for hospitals, schools, Medicare or aged care,” Knott said.