Antarctic sea ice anomaly: Its influence on interannual summer rainfall variability in East Asia and Adjacent Seas

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108598
2025-10-29
Atmospheric Research
Chunyan Xiao , Anmin Duan , Guoxiong Wu , Yuheng Tang , Qilu Wang , Ping Zhang
The objective of this investigation was to uncover the underlying association between the Antarctic sea ice anomaly and the summer rainfall anomaly in East Asia on interannual timescales by employing observational analysis and model simulation methods. During the boreal early summer (from May to July), the leading pattern of sea-ice anomalies primarily shows an abnormal contraction within the Weddell Sea region, while an abnormal expansion occurs within the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea and East Antarctica regions. This pattern significantly influences the summer rainfall anomalies in East Asia and its adjacent seas. It results in a dipole-shaped precipitation pattern, with a reduced rainfall anomaly in the tropical western Pacific (TWP) and an increased rainfall anomaly in eastern China (EC). Sea ice anomalies can trigger meridional circulation and vertical motion anomalies via thermal and dynamic effects. These anomalies, at mid-to-high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere, correspond to the positive phase of the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and then propagate from the southern to the northern hemisphere. This process leads to notable downdrafts over the TWP and updrafts over EC. Abnormal downdrafts and divergence suppress convection and precipitation in the TWP, whereas updrafts and convergence facilitate them in EC. Furthermore, the distinctive maritime continent conditions over the TWP, which are coupled with the suppression of convection, act to foster a teleconnection mode that closely resembles the reverse Pacific-Japan (PJ) mode. The reversed PJ-like mode further intensifies the strong dipole-like precipitation anomalies between the TWP and EC. Finally, numerical experiments verified the physical mechanism by which the Antarctic sea-ice anomaly affects the summer precipitation anomalies in East Asia and its adjacent seas.
关键词
  • Antarctic sea ice
  • East Asian summer rainfall
  • Vertical meridional circulation
  • Pacific-Japan pattern