Warm and wet anomalies persist across the Pan-Arctic after carbon dioxide removal

https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae24f2
2025-11-27
Environmental Research Letters
Xiao Dong, Chao Min, Hao Luo, Jiangbo Jin, He Zhang

The pan-Arctic region is experiencing rapid climate change under global warming, with Arctic Amplification occurring at a rate 2-3 times faster than the global average. This study investigates the climate responses in the Pan-Arctic region under carbon dioxide removal (CDR) scenarios using nine CMIP6 models from the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP). Our results reveal significant hysteresis and asymmetric responses in both temperature and precipitation during CO₂ increase and decrease phases. The multi-model mean shows that when CO₂ concentrations return to pre-industrial levels, the pan-Arctic region retains a warming of approximately 1.5°C and increased precipitation of about 0.1 mm/d compared to initial conditions. Notably, temperature and precipitation changes in the pan-Arctic at peak CO₂ are approximately twice the global average. We identify substantial inter-model uncertainties, primarily driven by divergent representations of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) responses and associated North Atlantic cooling patterns in the ramp-up period. Two models (CESM2 and NorESM2-LM) simulate particularly strong AMOC weakening during the ramp-up phase, resulting in reduced warming and wetting trends across the pan-Arctic. Similar persistence of warmer and wetter conditions is found under the moderate CDR scenario SSP126. These findings highlight the irreversible nature of Arctic climate change even under aggressive CDR scenarios and emphasize the need for improved representation of Arctic processes in climate models to reduce uncertainties in climate projection and mitigation strategy design.