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Stochastic health risk profiling of potentially toxic elements in Iranian ornamental construction paints: assessing and Monte Carlo simulation

2025-12-05
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Fatemeh Ataiesalami, Mahsa Tahergorabi, Hadigheh Dorri, Maryam Khodadadi, Mohammad Moqaddasi Amiri, Saeed Rajabi

Abstract

Paints consist of intricate combinations of solvents, additives, and pigments that provide the desired color, coverage, and durability, and pose a human health risk due to potentially toxic elements (PTEs), including lead (Pb), chromium (Cr), and cadmium (Cd), which accumulate in biological systems. This research innovatively assessed the non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic health risks posed by PTEs in Iranian decorative (ornamental) paints and emphasized the need for awareness raising and the development of control regulations. The PTEs concentrations were determined through wet acid digestion and analyzed through ICP-OES. The findings indicated that Pb concentrations ranged from 689.4 to 858.6 mg/kg, Cr concentrations from 698 to 946.4 mg/kg, and Cd concentrations between 0.24 and 0.37 mg/kg, revealing that Pb and Cr values exceeded the permissible limits. The findings suggest that children exhibit a heightened susceptibility to these pollutants due to their unique behaviors and physiological traits. The ingestion route represented the primary contribution to the total hazard quotient, accounting for 96.8% in children and 58.4% in adults. The adults’ hazard index (HI) for Pb and Cd was below the safe threshold of 1, whereas Cr surpassed this limit concerning non-carcinogenic risk. In children, the HI for both Pb and Cr surpassed the acceptable limit. Total Lifetime cancer risk (TLCR) values for both groups in Cr were higher than the acceptable range established by the USEPA, with relatively higher values observed in children. Among the three metals analyzed, Cr exhibited the most significant potential health risk, followed by Pb and Cd. Ingestion was identified as the primary route of exposure, while inhalation and dermal routes were less significant. To enhance the accuracy of exposure risk assessments for PTEs, a Monte Carlo simulation was utilized as a probabilistic algorithm to minimize uncertainties.

Data availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author (Saeed Rajabi: saeedrajabi27@gmail.com) on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

The authors sincerely appreciate the financial support provided for the preparation of the current study. This research was approved by the Ethics Committee of Birjand University of Medical Sciences (Iran) under the ethical code IR.BUMS.REC.1403.083 and research-approval code 457425.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Student Research Committee, Birjand University of Medical Sciences, Birjand, Iran

    Fatemeh Ataiesalami

  2. Department of Environmental Health Engineering, Sirjan School of Medical Sciences, Sirjan, Iran

    Mahsa Tahergorabi

  3. PhD in Analytical Chemistry, School of Public Health, Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Birjand University of Medical Sciences, Research, Birjand, Iran

    Hadigheh Dorri

  4. Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Health, Social Determinant of Health Research Center, Birjand University of Medical Sciences, Birjand, Iran

    Maryam Khodadadi

  5. Department of Public Health, Sirjan School of Medical Sciences, Sirjan, Iran

    Mohammad Moqaddasi Amiri

  6. Environmental Health Engineering Research Center, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran

    Saeed Rajabi

  7. Student Research Committee, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran

    Saeed Rajabi

  8. Department of Environmental Health Engineering, Faculty of Public Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran

    Saeed Rajabi

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  1. Fatemeh Ataiesalami
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Contributions

Conceptualization, M.T.; methodology, F.A. and M.T.; software, M.KH. and H.D.; validation, M.M.A.; formal analysis, M.T.; investigation, M.KH. and H.D.; resources, F.A.; data curation, M.T.; writing—original draft preparation, M.T., M.KH., and S.R.; writing—review and editing, M.M.A. and S.R.; visualization, M.T. and S.R.; supervision, H.D.; project administration, F.A.; funding acquisition, M.T., F.A., and M.KH.; All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Maryam Khodadadi or Saeed Rajabi.

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Ataiesalami, F., Tahergorabi, M., Dorri, H. et al. Stochastic health risk profiling of potentially toxic elements in Iranian ornamental construction paints: assessing and Monte Carlo simulation. Sci Rep (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-30826-4

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  • Received: 29 August 2025

  • Accepted: 27 November 2025

  • Published: 05 December 2025

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-30826-4

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Keywords

  • Color paints
  • Heavy metals
  • Risk assessment
  • Child exposure
  • Monte carlo simulation

Subjects

  • Environmental sciences
  • Risk factors

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