Forecasting inflation in the euro area: countries matter!

2021
We construct a Bayesian vector autoregressive model with three layers of information: the key drivers of inflation, cross-country dynamic interactions, and country-specific variables. The model provides good forecasting accuracy with respect to the popular benchmarks used in the literature. We perform a step-by-step analysis to shed light on which layer of information is more crucial for accurately forecasting medium-run euro area inflation. Our empirical analysis reveals the importance of including the key drivers of inflation and taking into account the multi-country dimension of the euro area. The results show that the complete model performs better overall in forecasting inflation excluding energy and unprocessed food over the medium term. We use the model to establish stylized facts on the euro area and cross-country heterogeneity over the business cycle.
EMPIRICAL ECONOMICS
页码:2477-2499|卷号:61|期号:5
ISSN:0377-7332
来源机构
Universite Libre de Bruxelles
收录类型
SSCI
发表日期
2021
学科领域
循证经济学
国家
比利时
语种
英语
DOI
10.1007/s00181-020-01959-4
其他关键词
BUSINESS-CYCLE; PHILLIPS-CURVE
EISSN
1435-8921
资助机构
Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique (FNRS)Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique - FNRS; Deutsche Bundesbank
资助信息
We are very grateful to Michele Lenza and Philippe Weil for their valuable guidance and support. We also would like to thank the editor and two anonymous referees for their useful comments. In addition, we wish to thank Carlo Altavilla, Fabio Busetti, Domenico Giannone, Matteo Luciani, Stefano Siviero, and the participants at the 2019 ITISE Conference in Granada for their helpful comments and suggestions. Angela Capolongo is grateful for the support of the Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique (FNRS) and the Deutsche Bundesbank. The views expressed in the article are those of the authors and do not involve the responsibility of the Bank of Italy. All remaining errors are ours.
被引频次(WOS)
0
被引更新日期
2022-01
关键词
Inflation Forecasting Bayesian estimation Multi-country model Euro area