Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are central to the Paris Agreement, serving as both pledges of climate ambition and platforms for articulating climate finance needs. However, how developing countries quantify these needs and the influencing factors remain poorly understood. Using an inductive research design based on expert interviews, we identify domestic and international factors influencing how countries estimate finance needs in their NDCs. Political institutions and the strategic perceptions of policymakers regarding NDCs – either as negotiation tools or investment plans – influence the specificity of climate finance needs estimates. Limited technical capacity and stakeholder engagement are important constraints in several countries. Meanwhile, international factors such as negotiating groups and consultants contribute to more detailed costing of climate finance when enabled by supportive policy environments. We propose a typology describing the spectrum of NDC archetypes, reflecting the interaction between domestic and international factors, as well as bottom-up and top-down estimation approaches. Our findings underscore that climate finance quantification is both technical and political, with implications for transparency and resource mobilization potential of future NDCs. Policymakers should remove barriers to obtaining granular sectoral and climate data, demonstrate political commitment, and strengthen collaborations with subnational levels. Capacity-building initiatives should strengthen the institutional and stakeholder foundations of detailed NDCs. Climate finance consultants should prioritize knowledge transfer and sustained collaboration with domestic institutions.
国家自主贡献(NDC)是《巴黎协定》的核心,既是气候雄心的承诺,也是阐明气候融资需求的平台。然而,发展中国家如何量化这些需求以及影响因素仍然知之甚少。使用基于专家访谈的归纳研究设计,我们确定了影响各国如何估计其国家数据中心融资需求的国内和国际因素。政治机构和决策者对国家自主贡献的战略看法——无论是作为谈判工具还是投资计划——都会影响气候融资需求估计的特殊性。有限的技术能力和利益攸关方的参与是一些国家的重要制约因素。与此同时,在支持性政策环境的支持下,谈判小组和顾问等国际因素有助于更详细地计算气候融资成本。我们提出了一种描述NDC原型谱的类型学,反映了国内和国际因素之间的相互作用,以及自下而上和自上而下的估计方法。我们的研究结果强调,气候融资量化既是技术性的,也是政治性的,对未来国家自主贡献的透明度和资源调动潜力有影响。政策制定者应消除获取详细部门和气候数据的障碍,展示政治承诺,并加强与国家以下各级的合作。能力建设举措应加强详细国家自主贡献的机构和利益攸关方基础。气候融资顾问应优先考虑知识转让和与国内机构的持续合作。