Heatwaves and violence against women: a spatial analysis of female homicides in Brazil

热浪和暴力侵害妇女行为:巴西女性凶杀案的空间分析

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103085
2025-11-30
Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions
Luan Marca , Marco Tulio Aniceto Franca , Jessica Antunes Oliveira , Kamila da Silva Baum
This study examines the association between heatwaves and female homicides in Brazil, using data from 5,341 municipalities (representing 95% of the country) from 2001 to 2021. Spatial econometric models are applied, and the results reveal a positive association between rising temperatures and the incidence of female homicides, with notable “hot spots” of domestic violence in the Northeast and Southeast regions. The preferred model explains approximately 43% of the variation in female homicides, reinforcing the robustness of the estimates. The research also shows that lower gender wage gaps and higher job stability are associated with reduced rates of female homicides. Overall, the findings indicate that climatic stressors such as heatwaves are associated with increased risks of violence against women, particularly in contexts of socioeconomic vulnerability. The study highlights that public policies aimed at addressing climate-related risks and promoting women’s economic empowerment may contribute to reducing this form of violence in a warming climate.
这项研究使用了2001年至2021年5,341个城市(占全国95%)的数据,调查了巴西热浪与女性凶杀案之间的关系。应用了空间计量经济学模型,结果揭示了气温上升与女性凶杀案发生率之间的正相关,东北部和东南部地区有明显的家庭暴力“热点”。首选模型解释了女性凶杀案中大约43%的变化,增强了估计的稳健性。研究还表明,较低的性别工资差距和较高的工作稳定性与女性凶杀率的降低有关。总体而言,研究结果表明,热浪等气候压力与暴力侵害妇女行为的风险增加有关,特别是在社会经济脆弱的背景下。该研究强调,旨在应对气候相关风险和促进妇女经济赋权的公共政策可能有助于在气候变暖的情况下减少这种形式的暴力。
关键词
  • Climate change
  • Female homicides
  • Heatwave
  • Spatial econometrics