It is crucial to enhance climate resilience of global dryland maize to cope with future 50-year warming scenarios (2030–2079), including SSP2-4.5 (medium emission) and SSP5-8.5 (high emission). We first calibrated and validated the AquaCrop model using observational data of field production with plastic film mulching (water-saving) and without mulching (CK) across 2019 and 2020. Subsequently, we used the validated AquaCrop model to simulate and predict maize biomass and seed yield based on different sowing dates and mulching patterns, employing historical climate data (1995–2019) and projected data under future climate scenarios. The results indicated that, relative to historical period, biomass and seed yields would decline by 5.9 % and 16.5 % under CK, but increase by 22.2 % and 21.0 % under plastic film mulching over the next 50 years under global warming, respectively. The stability and sustainability index of biomass yield would decline in CK, yet significantly increase under mulching. Seed yield would decline from SSP2-4.5 to SSP5-8.5, while biomass yield would elevate significantly. Relative to historical period, under plastic film mulching, optimal planting date window (OPDW) for seed production would be averagely extended by 2.8 days under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, which is significantly shorter than the averagely extended OPDW for biomass production under future climate scenarios (7.6 days). Mulching strategy enables crops to better adapt to severe fluctuations of precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation than CK. Therefore, biomass-led, rather than seed-led, mulching production strategy promises future climate resilience and sustainability of global dryland maize, particularly under high emission scenario.