Recent advances in intra-hour solar forecasting: A review of ground-based sky image methods

Zhang, Y (通讯作者),Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Elect Engn, Shaanxi Key Lab Smart Grid, Xian 710049, Shaanxi, Peoples R China.
2023-1-3
As the penetration of solar energy generation into power systems keeps rising, intra-hour solar forecasting (IHSF) is becoming increasingly important for the secure and economical operation of a power system. One major difficulty in providing very accurate IHSF emanates from rapid cloud changes in the sky. The ground-based sky image (GSI) provides the intuitive information of intra-hour cloud changes and has thus been widely utilized in studies on IHSF. This paper presents a systematic review of the state-of-the-art of ground-based sky image-based intra-hour solar forecasting (GSI-IHSF). To our knowledge, we first propose a generic framework of GSI-IHSF consisting of four modules, i.e., sky image acquisition, sky image preprocessing, cloud forecasting, and solar forecasting. Then, as for each module, this paper introduces its core function, shows the major challenges, briefly reviews several extensively used techniques, summarizing research trends. Finally, this paper offers a prospect of GSI-IHSF research, discusses recent advances that demonstrate the potential for a great improvement in forecast accuracy, pointing out some new requirements and challenges that should be further investigated in the future.(c) 2021 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
卷号:39|期号:1|页码:244-265
ISSN:0169-2070|收录类别:SSCI
语种
英语
来源机构
Xi'an Jiaotong University
资助信息
This research was funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China (51907151) , and Key Research and Development Program of Shaanxi (2019ZDLGY18-01) .
被引频次(WOS)
8
被引频次(其他)
8
180天使用计数
2
2013以来使用计数
2
EISSN
1872-8200
出版年
2023-1-3
DOI
10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.11.002
关键词
Intra-hour solar forecasting Ramp-down forecasting Ground-based sky image Cloud forecasting Computer vision Machine learning
资助机构
National Natural Science Foundation of China(National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)) Key Research and Development Program of Shaanxi
WOS学科分类
Economics Management
学科领域
循证管理学 循证经济学