Controlling Shareholder Characteristics and Corporate Debt Default Risk: Evidence Based on Machine Learning

Wu, ZC (通讯作者),601 West Huangpu Ave, Guangzhou 510632, Peoples R China.
2022-9-26
The influence of controlling shareholder characteristics on corporate risk has been a popular topic for discussion in academic and theoretical circles. However, current research lacks systematic and quantitative conclusions based on predictive ability, as it only focuses on the causal relationship between a single characteristic of the controlling shareholder and corporate risk. This paper utilizes the back propagation neural network based on gray wolf algorithm (GWO-BP) method in the machine learning algorithm for the first time and takes the listed companies that publicly issue bonds in the Chinese bond market as a research sample. It summarizes the qualities of controlling shareholders from the perspective of controlling shareholders' risk-taking and benefits expropriation and examines multi-dimensional controlling shareholder characteristics for predicting the debt default risk of companies. This research established that: (1) Overall, the characteristics of controlling shareholders can improve the ability to predict the debt default of a company; (2) The features of the investment portfolio of the controlling shareholder have a higher degree of predicting the debt default risk of a company,while the properties of equity structure and related transactions have a lower degree of predicting the risk of corporate debt default.This research not only uses machine learning methods to study controlling shareholders in China from a more comprehensive perspective but also provides a useful incentive for bondholders to protect their interests.
EMERGING MARKETS FINANCE AND TRADE
卷号:58|期号:12|页码:3324-3339
ISSN:1540-496X|收录类别:SSCI
语种
英语
来源机构
Jinan University; Guangxi University
资助信息
National Natural Science Foundation of China (72173057, 71672077); Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province, China (2021A1515011536); Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (19JNKY08)
被引频次(WOS)
0
被引频次(其他)
0
180天使用计数
26
2013以来使用计数
47
EISSN
1558-0938
出版年
2022-9-26
DOI
10.1080/1540496X.2022.2037416
学科领域
循证经济学
关键词
Machine learning GWO-BP neural network controlling shareholder characteristics debt default
资助机构
National Natural Science Foundation of China(National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)) Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province, China(National Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province) Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities)
WOS学科分类
Business Economics International Relations