Oil futures volatility predictability: New evidence based on machine learning models

Xu, J (通讯作者),Southwest Jiaotong Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Chengdu, Peoples R China.;Xu, J (通讯作者),Serv Sci & Innovat Key Lab Sichuan Prov, Chengdu, Peoples R China.
2022-10
This paper comprehensively examines the connection between oil futures volatility and the financial market based on a model-rich environment, which contains traditional predicting models, machine learning models, and combination models. The results highlight the efficiency of machine learning models for oil futures volatility forecasting, particularly the ensemble models and neural network models. Most interestingly, we consider the forecast combination puzzle in machine learning models, and find that combination models continue to have more satisfactory performances in all types of situations. We also discuss the model interpretability and each indicator's contribution to the prediction. Our paper provides new insights for machine learning methods' applications in futures market volatility prediction, which is helpful for academics, policy-makers, and investors.
INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
卷号:83
ISSN:1057-5219|收录类别:SSCI
语种
英语
来源机构
Southwest Jiaotong University
资助信息
The authors are grateful to the editor and anonymous referees for insightful comments that significantly improved the paper. This work is supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China [72071162, 72171197, 71902128, 72073109], Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, Grant/Award Number [2682020ZT98].
被引频次(WOS)
3
被引频次(其他)
3
180天使用计数
13
2013以来使用计数
13
EISSN
1873-8079
出版年
2022-10
DOI
10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102299
WOS学科分类
Business, Finance
学科领域
循证经济学
关键词
Machine learning Combination forecast Realized volatility Oil futures market Crisis periods
资助机构
Natural Science Foundation of China(National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)) Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities)